Stocks

Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dare To Be Different

By |2024-03-11T08:01:35-04:00March 10th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it still caters to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Are We There Yet?

By |2024-03-04T12:11:45-05:00March 3rd, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

How far can this rally go? Should we be locking in some gains? That's a paraphrase of questions I've been getting from clients recently. It does seem as if the stock market goes up every day and with all the ups and downs of the last few years, it is natural to wonder if we're about to get another bout [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Artificial Intelligence?

By |2024-02-26T10:33:46-05:00February 25th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Markets, Newsletter, Stocks|

Nvidia reported earnings last week and they were, to be sober about it, incredible. Total revenue rose to $22.1 billion for the quarter,  up 22% from last quarter and 265% year-over-year. Data center revenue, which is what investors really ought to be watching with this company, was up 27% from last quarter and a whopping 409% year-over-year. Gross margins run [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Questions

By |2024-02-20T08:46:05-05:00February 20th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Are You Ready For The Roarin’ Twenties?

By |2024-02-12T06:55:50-05:00February 12th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

When I sat down to write this week's commentary, my intention was to write - again - about the valuation of the stock market and particularly the S&P 500. And even more specifically about the top 20 stocks, which make up 42% of the index, and trade for an average forward P/E of 27.5. It is an expensive bet on [...]

Market Pulse: Skeptically Optimistic

By |2024-02-05T08:23:37-05:00February 5th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to Thursday, the yield fell, from high to low, by 34 basis points, a move that added 1.3% to bond prices (Aggregate bond index) in four days. In a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Recession Finally Here?

By |2024-01-22T07:52:03-05:00January 22nd, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently righted itself to positive territory until July of 2022 and has stayed inverted ever since. Since an inverted yield curve has preceded almost every recession [...]

Market Pulse: Presidential Portfolios

By |2024-01-16T08:57:36-05:00January 15th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to us is the least offensive. It isn't very democratic with just two options but that is the system that the politicians built to benefit...themselves and it's all [...]

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