Politics

Questions

By |2017-08-20T14:39:16-04:00August 20th, 2017|Commodities, Markets, Politics|

Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000.  Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained high. Why? What changed in [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-05-22T16:34:28-04:00May 22nd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic data releases since the last update were generally upbeat but markets are forward looking and the future apparently isn't to their liking. Of course, it is hard to tell sometimes whether bonds, the dollar and stocks are responding to the real economy or the one people hope Donald Trump can deliver when he isn't busy contradicting his communications [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2017-05-18T18:48:22-04:00May 18th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Markets, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.  Based on the bond markets there has been little change in the growth and [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-04-23T14:57:39-04:00April 23rd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks|

It wasn't a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called "soft data" is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the [...]

Pump It Up

By |2017-02-05T19:45:43-04:00February 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Markets, Politics|

She's been a bad girl. She's like a chemical. Though you try to stop it, she's like a narcotic. You wanna torture her. You wanna talk to her. All the things you bought for her, putting up your temp'rature.   Pump it up until you can feel it. Pump it up when you don't really need it. Elvis Costello   [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Regime Change

By |2016-11-20T17:16:21-04:00November 20th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard The reported economic data of the last few weeks (it's been 3 weeks since my last update so I guess technically this isn't the Bi-Weekly Review) provides about as much direction and insight as the polls conducted prior to the election. To my eye, the trend here is trendless with a decidedly mixed set of data, each [...]

Nothing Has Changed….Yet

By |2016-11-09T20:58:25-04:00November 9th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Politics, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Back in June I mused about a Trump election: Forget for a minute that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. Think about the policies he is likely to propose as President and how they might affect the markets. Forget the campaign rhetoric for a minute, the things he’s proposed that can’t get done because the US President isn’t a dictator [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Rising?

By |2016-10-14T14:32:54-04:00October 14th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data of the last fortnight was typical for this cycle with some reports showing improvement and others the opposite; "mixed" has been the most often used adjective of this expansion. Of course, some reports are more important than others and the bad news was concentrated in an area that has consistently supported the economic bull [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-06-26T13:53:52-04:00June 26th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

Economic Reports Scorecard While everyone was focused on the potentially negative impact of Brexit, the Census Bureau was reporting evidence of actual economic weakness in the form of the durable goods report. The report was weak pretty much across the board but the weakness in autos is particularly concerning. The auto industry, along with construction, has been a leader in [...]

What Now, Ms. Yellen?

By |2016-06-06T00:02:21-04:00June 5th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Politics, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Well, that was ugly. The lousy employment report released this past Friday threw the markets and probably the FOMC for a loop. Stocks didn't really do anything - yet - but other markets more than made up for that minor oversight. The dollar was down 1.5% on the week, all of that after 8:30 Friday morning. Gold was up 2.57% [...]