Bi-Weekly Economic Review
Economic Reports Scorecard Concern about recession is growing again as formerly strong portions of the economy turn down. The last two weeks brought reports of new weakness in the labor market, continued slowing in construction [...]
Re-evaluating ‘Stimulus’ By Market Force
On July 2, 2015, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) traded to a stout closing yield of 0.511%. That was up significantly, in Japanese financial terms, from the start to the year where the benchmark [...]
Warning Of A Warning; Crossing February 11
Eurodollar futures prices rose again today, the seventh consecutive increase in most maturities. Six of those days were relatively small moves, the biggest jump last Friday with the release of the payroll report. For the [...]
The Polar Vortex Economy of 2014 Was A Warning; Wholesale Sales Prove It Should Not Have Been Dismissed As Weather
Wholesales sales are right back on track again after two months of being affected by the calendar. After rising 0.8% in February and 0.6% in March, sales declined by 5.3% Y/Y in April. For the [...]
When ‘Dollar’ Retreat Looks Like Recovery, You Know The World Is Upside Down
It makes for yet another huge dichotomy, but one which is curiously absent from any mainstream commentary. As noted earlier today, Chinese imports were pleasantly surprising for the mainstream as they were just about flat [...]
Productivity And Labor; More Evidence For A Supercycle
The BLS updated its productivity estimates yesterday to incorporate the BEA’s slight upward revision in GDP for Q1 2016. The changes to the productivity series were also small, where the initial estimate was for -1% [...]
Chinese Frame of Reference
Chinese imports fell for the 19th consecutive month in May, but it was the pace of the latest decline that has stirred (yet again) so much optimism. Year-over-year, Chinese imports were down just 0.4%, beating [...]
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