asian flu

Brazil Money Math

By |2018-09-19T12:41:14+00:00September 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in the real, Brazil’s currency (BRL), against the dollar. In order to forestall any further declines, central bank intervention has long been a frontline [...]

BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)

By |2018-03-12T17:50:13+00:00March 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those global “dollar” pressures and lead to Bear Stearns’ untimely demise mere days later. The fund’s corporate parent issued a statement on March 6, 2008, that read: [...]

Accounting, Monetarily, For The Global Economy

By |2017-01-24T13:41:10+00:00January 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

From the outside, it appears as if Wall Street operates like a bureaucracy. There is an enormous amount of paperwork, endless committees who conduct endless meetings, and layers of management supposedly managing the movement of that paperwork as well as the meetings of those committees. The idea is simple enough, to make it appear as [...]

Rising Dollar = Dollar Shortage = Global Liquidity Shortage

By |2016-11-30T14:17:00+00:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before October 1997, what would become known as the Asian flu was just another opportunity for the mainstream to dismiss what many people, including many prominent, competent people, had been warning about for years before. The usual refrain thrown back at them was some form of “you are missing out.” People, of course, never really [...]

Still More Inventory

By |2015-11-24T17:03:32+00:00November 24th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only piece of the GDP revision to note is that the BEA is still having great difficulty estimating inventory. That isn’t surprising since businesses in this area are behaving far different than any expectation, even factoring the difficulty of the “recovery” environment. That leaves instead only Janet Yellen’s continuous pleading about the surge in [...]

The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble

By |2015-08-14T15:17:31+00:00August 14th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout Asia are being roiled not unlike 1997 and oil prices sunk to a new “recovery” low. While that all suggests far away turmoil [...]

Occam’s Oil

By |2014-12-31T11:15:10+00:00December 31st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As my colleague Joe Calhoun continually reminds us, everything that happens has happened before. The ongoing “struggle” to define what is driving crude oil prices lower is perhaps another instance of a past “cycle” being reborn. With oil prices now heading much closer to the $40’s than the $60’s, consistent commentary is increasingly swept aside. [...]

Obtaining Dollars In A Post-gold System

By |2013-09-04T12:05:05+00:00September 4th, 2013|Markets|

The emerging market story has unfortunately been turned into, as the kids say, a meme. According to Bloomberg, the “weakest” of the EM currencies have been dubbed the “Fragile Five” by Morgan Stanley “strategists”. These include the South African rand, Brazilian real, Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah and Turkish lira (3 out of the 5 BRICS). [...]

Beyond US Bonds, Taper Pressuring Global Dollar Funding

By |2013-07-05T13:12:27+00:00July 5th, 2013|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Reserve Bank of India was again spotted in the forex markets, as the rupee again nears its record low against the dollar. While India has myriad problems that add up to foreign exchange imbalances, there is pressure on the dollar as globally firms are finding them harder to come by. That rising dollar has [...]