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bank of japan

Leading Out From Japan

By |2021-07-28T19:14:27-04:00July 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Admittedly, there isn’t much economic data released in the back half of every month. So, we’re sort of stretching our gaze into the second (maybe third) tier. But in this case, it’s just by way of reinforcing much what we already know and further what’s been suspected. Over in Japan, the government’s Cabinet Office gathers surveys, cross tabulates results and [...]

The Vast Majority (not) Inflation Case

By |2021-05-20T20:01:32-04:00May 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Global factors. Both for inflation as well as money, in fact money therefore inflation. Only recently, yesterday, in fact, has the Federal Reserve pulled back the official curtain of silence and illiteracy if only a little to admit there’s so much more than what you’ve ever been told. Bank reserves aren’t the end of the story, especially in light of [...]

Another Hundred Trillion For The Library

By |2021-04-28T20:06:17-04:00April 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Words have meaning for a reason, to convey precise ideas easily and readily understood by the reader or listener. If you use the term “stimulus”, as its root already suggests you’d expect something to be stimulated by whatever is being classified using this specific grouping of letters/sounds. Context rounds out the meaning.For the last twenty years, you’d have been wrong [...]

Fragility (脆弱性)

By |2021-04-13T19:16:45-04:00April 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a short while, with reflation being traded in almost every corner of the global bond market, the Bank of Japan started to get “those” questions again. Almost of the humble brag variety. A few years ago, Japan’s central bank had widened what it considered to be an acceptable trading range for its 2016 QQE addendum of Yield Curve Control [...]

Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

By |2021-02-24T18:38:43-05:00February 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same [...]

Already Tried: イールドカーブコントロール

By |2021-02-17T20:10:05-05:00February 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Aussies weren’t the first to drive into the YCC channel. That “honor” belonged instead where it always does: Japan. The Japanese had also pioneered yield curve control just like they had for practically every single element behind post-crisis monetary policy everywhere else around the world. It’s always a safe bet that if some central bank somewhere starts doing something [...]

The Fundamentals of the Bond ‘Bubble’

By |2021-01-12T18:14:09-05:00January 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They were never very specific to begin with, even in Ben Bernanke’s infamous November 2010 Post op-ed covering the start of QE2. Officials like to keep it purposefully vague as a kind of dry powder, a margin for error. If bureaucrats become too specific, the public would reasonably hold them to their own standard being laid out. The point behind [...]

They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?)

By |2021-01-06T19:53:13-05:00January 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months. The JGB 10-year yield had dropped to a low of just 77.2 [...]

You Need To Understand What’s Really Behind This New ‘V’, And Once Again Japan Is More Than Helpful

By |2020-10-14T17:15:33-04:00October 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why do we care so much about inflation targeting in any form? Ask that question of a central banker and they will merely state the answer is self-evident before calling the police to have you arrested and thrown in jail for daring to query. Inflation targeting is central to this version of the central bank, so much so it has [...]

Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

By |2020-09-17T20:03:37-04:00September 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday. Six months after Jay Powell conducted what he called a “flood”, with every financial media outlet reporting as fact this stream of digital dollars into every corner of [...]

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