bill dudley

Unexpected?

By |2018-12-05T11:50:26+00:00December 5th, 2018|Markets|

Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so “unexpected”, you see. Nobody could have seen it coming, therefore it [...]

Official Hedging Begins (Again)

By |2018-11-16T16:27:40+00:00November 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term “overseas turmoil” didn’t ever make into the official language, it was only through careful innuendo that things like FOMC meeting minutes would ever refer to the idea. It was a different story in the media, where the phrase gained its own currency. Ironically, it was the US currency behind it, which nobody could [...]

Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50+00:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts [...]

Another Confesses The Impossible, We Might Not Have Known What Were Doing

By |2018-06-04T12:55:56+00:00June 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When you go around claiming that central bankers don’t know the first thing about money, people tend to think you are crazy. It’s not really their (people’s) fault. Not only have we been conditioned to believe in a technocracy of sorts, it is raw human nature to immediately suspect such a radically contrarian view. It [...]

Data Dependent: Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go

By |2017-08-14T18:20:05+00:00August 14th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bill Dudley admitted that the US economy might be slowing. In the typically understated fashion befitting the usual clownshow, he merely was acknowledging what was by then pretty obvious to anyone outside the economics profession. Dudley was at that moment, however, undaunted. His eye was cast toward the [...]