fbpx

bill dudley

Chart of the Week: The Dreaded Full Frown

By |2018-12-28T15:44:44-05:00December 28th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m going to break my personal convention and use the bulk of the colors in the eurodollar futures spectrum, not just the single EDM’s (June) contained within each. The current front month is January 2019, and its quoted price as I write this is 97.2475. The EDH (March) 2019 contract trades at 97.29 currently and it will drop off the [...]

Unexpected?

By |2018-12-05T11:50:26-05:00December 5th, 2018|Markets|

Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so “unexpected”, you see. Nobody could have seen it coming, therefore it just showed up out of [...]

Official Hedging Begins (Again)

By |2018-11-16T16:27:40-05:00November 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term “overseas turmoil” didn’t ever make into the official language, it was only through careful innuendo that things like FOMC meeting minutes would ever refer to the idea. It was a different story in the media, where the phrase gained its own currency. Ironically, it was the US currency behind it, which nobody could explain at the time. The [...]

It Matters Which Error

By |2018-07-09T19:07:58-04:00July 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We ended last week on a pretty sour note. The eurodollar futures curve has inverted ever so slightly, which isn’t a very good sign of things to come. Since the inversion has to do with different pressures pressing on different parts, convention pays all attention only to the front. It’s there where the Federal Reserve acts out its forecasts. Because [...]

Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50-04:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts deal with probabilities and distributions [...]

Another Confesses The Impossible, We Might Not Have Known What Were Doing

By |2018-06-04T12:55:56-04:00June 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When you go around claiming that central bankers don’t know the first thing about money, people tend to think you are crazy. It’s not really their (people’s) fault. Not only have we been conditioned to believe in a technocracy of sorts, it is raw human nature to immediately suspect such a radically contrarian view. It would be one thing to [...]

Everything Now On Slack

By |2017-11-07T18:43:37-05:00November 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The whole thing really does unravel at the unemployment rate. If it indicates the correct view of the economy, even close to “full employment”, then what follows is fairly typical and orthodox stuff. In the context of what the Fed is doing, short-term rate hikes are leading the longer end of the yield curve toward a more hopeful future (though [...]

The CPI Comes Home

By |2017-09-14T18:24:14-04:00September 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There seems to be an intense if at times acrimonious debate raging inside the Federal Reserve right now. The differences go down to its very core philosophies. Just over a week ago, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer abruptly resigned from the Board of Governors even though many believed he was a possible candidate to replace Chairman Yellen at the end of [...]

Data Dependent: Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go

By |2017-08-14T18:20:05-04:00August 14th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bill Dudley admitted that the US economy might be slowing. In the typically understated fashion befitting the usual clownshow, he merely was acknowledging what was by then pretty obvious to anyone outside the economics profession. Dudley was at that moment, however, undaunted. His eye was cast toward the unemployment rate and that was [...]

Go to Top