bond rout

Selling UST’s + Hedging Costs ≠ BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-11-26T16:54:05+00:00November 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Maybe blame the ECB. On June 5, 2014, Europe’s central bank announced a change in monetary policy. Beginning June 11, their deposit account mechanism that acts as a hard floor for European money rates would be set below zero for the first time. It would mean any funds left on deposit with the ECB in [...]

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31+00:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. [...]

Just Who, Exactly, Is So Optimistic?

By |2018-07-26T18:41:45+00:00July 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

BNP Paribas is apparently calling for an epic rout in German bunds. According to Bloomberg (who else?) it’s a mini-revival of Bill Gross’ ill-fated tweet advertising the “short of a lifetime.” In April 2015, the man many called the bond king said it was going to be better than the pound in 1993. https://twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624 Gross [...]

COT Blue: Which BOND ROUT!!!! Was It Really?

By |2018-04-06T17:34:37+00:00April 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only way to change the meaning of a word like “transitory” is to put together a constant string of temporary factors that when taken individually keep with the traditional definition but in combination completely obliterate it. Something happens to knock inflation off track, and then just as soon as that one thing is about [...]

Chart of the Week: JPY, not Payrolls

By |2018-03-23T18:01:59+00:00March 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The biggest risk to the bond bear case, that expressed by Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio, is, ironically, stocks. Convention has it that rising interest rates are bad for them, but what are falling stock prices for UST’s? Historically speaking, the introduction of risk and even liquidations is bond positive. When the last [...]

BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)

By |2018-03-12T17:50:13+00:00March 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those global “dollar” pressures and lead to Bear Stearns’ untimely demise mere days later. The fund’s corporate parent issued a statement on March 6, 2008, that read: [...]

When You Stop Reading After The Second Sentence

By |2017-07-18T16:14:36+00:00July 18th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 27, ECB President Mario Draghi opened that central bank’s international conference in Sintra, Portugal. Most media never made it past the first two sentences of his prepared remarks. For them, the verdict was already delivered in those few lines. They declared that Draghi declared monetary policy was working and the world was on [...]