boom

Worker Wages And Who Is Really Winning

By |2018-10-04T18:19:59+00:00October 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists [...]

Rebalancing Decoupled Booms

By |2018-08-01T12:07:19+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire purpose of China’s presumed rebalancing act is supposedly that the country’s economy will no longer be strongly linked to industry. Manufacturing, for export in particular, is what made modern China into an economic powerhouse, transforming a once agrarian subsistence society (thanks to socialism). One need only look at overhead or satellite images of [...]

What Really Happened In Europe

By |2018-05-07T19:03:02+00:00May 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary example of globally synchronized growth has been Europe. Nowhere has more hope been attached to shifting fortunes. The Continent, buoyed by the persistence of central bankers like Mario Draghi, has not just accelerated it is actually booming. Or so they say. Last September, politicians were lining up to confidently declare as much, often [...]

The Longest Falling Expansion

By |2018-04-27T19:11:14+00:00April 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The current expansion is already one of the longest on record. With another quarter entering the BEA’s books, it has been 35 since the last declared recession. At +2.3% for the current one, there won’t be another considered anytime soon putting this economy within reach. Yet, out of those 35 quarters only 10 have contained [...]

Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

By |2018-04-18T14:58:16+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial [...]

The Retail Sales Shortage

By |2018-04-16T17:03:26+00:00April 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly [...]

Blaming The Boom Basis

By |2018-02-22T18:31:50+00:00February 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Once the sick man of the global economy, Europe’s system had roared back in 2017. According to the narrative, everything is right right now on the Continent. Manufacturing couldn’t possibly be any better, and the ECB forced into “emergency” monetary measures for longer than almost anyone else (except, as always, Japan) is talking confidently about [...]

A Boom Of Hysteria

By |2018-02-13T12:28:08+00:00February 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always been easy to lose perspective. In the modern social media age, maybe it has become even easier. Conventional wisdom rarely seems to get challenged anymore, particularly given the assignment of “what everybody knows.” Big Data is, for example, predicated on a very good theory, the wisdom of crowds. It hasn’t yet lived up [...]

For All That Seems To Go Right, What’s Always Missing?

By |2018-01-22T19:33:34+00:00January 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On April 29, 2011, the US benchmark oil price (WTI) surged above $113 per barrel. It wasn’t just American oil prices, either, as other benchmarks around the world were on a huge run. It was the highest for crude oil in three years, going back to the weeks immediately following Lehman. At that price, more [...]