Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

By |2017-12-04T18:57:43+00:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart [...]

What’s Left If There Is No Money Or Policy In Monetary Policy? Reality

By |2017-04-20T19:11:33+00:00April 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s such an obvious thing, so maybe that is why no one mentions it. I doubt that is the reason, however, because doing so isn’t a mystery so much as narrowing down suspects. That is why when talking about the so-called natural rate of interest, or R* (r-star), the issue is (intentionally) cloaked in the [...]

Curves Need No R-star; Economists Need R* To Decode Curves

By |2017-03-27T19:33:29+00:00March 27th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the yield curve flattened out almost in a straight line from late 2013 until July 2016, it became common to suggest the historical relationship between inversion and recession. While that may still be a valid interpretation, as the yield curve ultimately did not invert and the US did avoid falling fully into recession, it [...]

Rose Colored Glasses

By |2015-07-19T17:18:53+00:00July 19th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Stocks|

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream. Edgar Allan Poe   All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth. Friedrich Nietzsche   I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out. Steven Wright [...]

Cracks In The Facade

By |2015-07-13T11:17:09+00:00July 12th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Stocks|

There was a point last week - probably about midday Wednesday - when it seemed that the financial world was spinning out of control. China's Shanghai exchange was continuing its slow motion crash, down almost 6% overnight, Europe was getting hammered as Greece teetered, the NYSE suddenly stopped working, United/Continental Airlines was grounded due to [...]

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