fbpx

capital goods

Weekly Market Pulse: Trading Places

By |2021-08-02T07:37:59-04:00August 1st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

They're out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They're out there. They're panicking. Look at them. - Eddie Murphy as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places I thought of that scene the other day when a good friend in the investment business told me that investors today are panicking into the market rather than out as they were [...]

With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

By |2020-01-28T18:14:17-05:00January 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis). You can see it in how everything is framed. [...]

More Down In The Downturn

By |2019-10-24T18:19:23-04:00October 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month. The manufacturing index came in at 51.5, [...]

Durable Goods And 1998

By |2019-05-24T11:58:26-04:00May 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It’s that time of year when many if not most (I don’t actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high frequency panels and changes are made as necessary. Sometimes these are substantial, [...]

Finally Closing The Book On Harvey and Irma, Opening A New Economic Chapter To?

By |2018-11-21T13:26:59-05:00November 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I, for one, am sick of still writing about 2017’s tropical season. It’s been well more than a year and yet we are just now finally moving past them. It would’ve been healthier and more honest had there been more appreciation for what they really were going to do for/to the US economy. Without any more artificial interventions left, the [...]

Fake Boom No Match For the Calendar

By |2018-10-25T17:23:25-04:00October 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms and then frontrunning potential trade restrictions. Manufacturers domestically were gearing up for a whole host of non-economic reasons. If Keynes had ever been right about activity for the sake of activity, [...]

Alternating Durable Goods, Three Month Lumps Back to Cool

By |2018-08-24T12:44:57-04:00August 24th, 2018|Economy, Markets|

Heavy manufacturing in the United States has taken on some unusually lumpy characteristics. Over the past year, it has advanced, to be sure, but in very noticeable fits and starts. It therefore raises the same question as the economy has been dealing with since 2007. We’ve seen growth periods like this before, low ceilings and all. This one so far [...]

Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

By |2018-02-27T18:06:48-05:00February 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading. The seasonally-adjusted data gives a better sense of the [...]

December Durable Goods

By |2018-01-26T17:43:04-05:00January 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Durable and capital goods orders and shipments all increased in December by growth rates consistent with those registered in the months leading up to the big storms Harvey and Irma. We continue to find evidence that accelerated growth in October and November was nothing more than the anticipated after-effects cleaning up after those hurricanes. New orders for durable goods (excluding [...]

Go to Top