capital goods

Finally Closing The Book On Harvey and Irma, Opening A New Economic Chapter To?

By |2018-11-21T13:26:59+00:00November 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I, for one, am sick of still writing about 2017’s tropical season. It’s been well more than a year and yet we are just now finally moving past them. It would’ve been healthier and more honest had there been more appreciation for what they really were going to do for/to the US economy. Without any [...]

Fake Boom No Match For the Calendar

By |2018-10-25T17:23:25+00:00October 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms and then frontrunning potential trade restrictions. Manufacturers domestically were gearing up for a whole host of non-economic reasons. If Keynes had ever been right about activity [...]

Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

By |2018-02-27T18:06:48+00:00February 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading. The seasonally-adjusted data gives [...]

December Durable Goods

By |2018-01-26T17:43:04+00:00January 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Durable and capital goods orders and shipments all increased in December by growth rates consistent with those registered in the months leading up to the big storms Harvey and Irma. We continue to find evidence that accelerated growth in October and November was nothing more than the anticipated after-effects cleaning up after those hurricanes. New [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

Durable Goods Only About Halfway To Real Reflation

By |2017-11-22T13:47:13+00:00November 22nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Durable goods were boosted for a second month by the after-effects of Harvey and Irma. New orders excluding those from transportation industries rose 8.5% year-over-year in October 2017, a slight acceleration from the 6.5% average of the four previous months. Shipments of durable goods (ex transportation) also rose by 8% last month. Even with that [...]

Subject To Gradation

By |2017-10-25T12:20:39+00:00October 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economic growth is subject to gradation. There is almost no purpose in making such a declaration, for anyone with common sense knows intuitively that there is a difference between robust growth and just positive numbers. Yet, the biggest mistake economists and policymakers made in 2014 was to forget that differences exist between even statistics all [...]

Durable Goods In July; Rinse, Repeat

By |2017-08-25T12:22:09+00:00August 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau reported today updated estimates for Durable Goods in July 2017. Quite frankly, nothing has changed so minimal commentary is all that is required. The aircraft anomaly from last month faded, leaving total new orders of $229.2 billion (seasonally-adjusted). That is less than in May before the Boeing surge, and less even than [...]

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