central banks

Already Back In The Red?

By |2018-06-28T17:35:33+00:00June 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In July 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testified before Congress. It was the usual Humphrey-Hawkins stuff, except in this instance at that particular time there was every reason to suspect things were finally changing. The unemployment rate, in particular, was sinking like a stone dropped in a pond. Some additional economic indicators signaled perhaps [...]

Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way

By |2018-04-18T18:17:59+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve [...]

The Mother Of All Bait’n Switches

By |2017-06-29T12:41:52+00:00June 29th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In light of light inflation measurements, central bankers have no other choice but to step up their rhetoric. Mario Draghi took the mantle earlier this week and has been joined at various points by others. The message they are sending is one that is purposefully muddied. There isn’t left to them any other choice. There [...]

Unfortunately An ‘Official’ End To The Rising Dollar Isn’t More

By |2017-05-17T19:15:03+00:00May 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

TIC data confirms that “reflation” captured more than just pricing sentiment. It appears to have occurred in bank balance sheet activity, and related official sector UST transactions. As to the latter, official holdings of US$ assets did decline on net in March 2017, the latest figures, including more selling of UST’s. The scale of the [...]

TIC Analysis of Selling

By |2017-03-24T16:38:30+00:00March 24th, 2017|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It [...]

Of Banks, Europe, Euros, and Eurodollars

By |2017-02-22T16:18:10+00:00February 22nd, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rather than bury this chart in my earlier discussion of liquidity preferences, I felt it deserved its own piece to highlight what it shows. By all traditional and orthodox Economics, this just should not be possible. Yet, there it is and it’s not the only example of violation. For very different markets as robust as [...]