commitment of traders

COT Black: Term Oil Means Turmoil

By |2018-10-29T12:57:27+00:00October 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria was as much crude oil as anything else. After all, it was the sudden spike higher in oil prices that would eventually push the US CPI, PCE Deflator, Europe’s HICP, and even Japan’s moribund inflation index. Central bankers were giddy, as was mainstream commentary extrapolating these trajectories into actual economic acceleration. For a [...]

COT Blue: A Short-term Path For Powell

By |2018-10-22T17:31:53+00:00October 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve announced its entry into emergency “non-standard” policy measures. In a belated attempt to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets”, the US central bank would begin auctioning reserve funds “against the wide variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount window.” The Term [...]

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04+00:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08+00:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is [...]

COT Blue: Reflation Doubts Accumulate

By |2018-07-11T11:34:13+00:00July 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I doubt there will be an official report created and published surrounding the events of May 29. Unlike those on October 15, 2014, which did trigger a Treasury Department alphabet-soup-of-partners response, it wasn’t crashy enough this time around. The UST market experienced a true panic more than three and a half years ago, though one [...]

COT Black: Diverging Like ’13?

By |2018-05-23T18:08:11+00:00May 23rd, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

During the week of February 21, 2017, Money Managers (MGR) in the WTI futures market went all the way for higher oil prices. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a then-record 405k net to the long side. For whatever reason(s), oil prices didn’t necessarily follow at least not in the same nearly direct [...]

COT Green: DXY’s Future(s)

By |2018-01-22T16:53:08+00:00January 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As with other prices, if we are interested in what’s going on with dollar exchange values (not be confused with eurodollars, the shadow conditions behind everything) we have to start with the futures market. Unlike UST’s or WTI, the one standing for the dollar index, or DXY in this case, isn’t particularly massive. That may [...]