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Weekly Market Pulse: Recession 2025?

By |2023-07-10T10:24:10-04:00July 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate|

Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half

By |2023-07-03T07:18:54-04:00July 2nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023. Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Correction?

By |2023-06-25T21:20:36-04:00June 25th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It appears we have started the third correction in stocks since the bottom in October of last year. The first one was in December and saw the S&P 500 fall about 8% from peak to trough. The second one was from February into mid-March and totaled about 9%. I don't know how far this one might carry but a pullback [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Beware The Aftershocks

By |2023-06-12T06:58:12-04:00June 11th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I am changing the format of these weekly updates. Rather than publishing one long weekly note, the weekend note will cover just the market and economic news of the week. The general commentary portion will be published another day during the week. We will also be publishing some new research notes during the week. The Monday email will include links [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Don’t Just Stand There!

By |2023-05-15T09:01:19-04:00May 15th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

What is long term? That's a question with many answers depending on your point of view. Some people might think a year is long term. I had a client tell me once that he was so old he didn't buy green bananas because he might not be around to eat them. Some might say 3 years is long term but [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: This Too Shall Pass

By |2023-04-24T09:11:36-04:00April 24th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

What is the state of the US economy? When will this long-anticipated recession finally arrive? And when it does, what does it mean for investors? Those are the questions everyone is asking and the answers are, well, hard. Despite years - decades, centuries? - of research, there is no accurate way I know of to predict the timing or depth [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: History Lessons

By |2023-04-10T08:39:57-04:00April 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we've had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like nothing in recent decades. There are very few market commentators today who have navigated an inflationary environment like the current one. I haven't either, of course, which is why [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What’s Wrong With T-bills?

By |2023-04-03T08:06:00-04:00April 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first quarter has come to a close and things have changed a lot...and not very much at all. Expectations coming into the year were that rates would peak in the spring at around 5% and then fall in the second half of the year to about 4.5%. That was the highest probability outcome according to the futures markets. Of [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perspective

By |2023-03-27T07:47:12-04:00March 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There has been a lot of angst over the last couple of weeks about a potential banking crisis. There have been 4 failures so far: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. The first of these hasn't been mentioned much because it was primarily associated with lending in the crypto market and, as far as I know, there [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Been There, Done That

By |2023-03-20T07:51:06-04:00March 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]

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