consumer spending

Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Economy

By |2018-10-15T12:03:00+00:00October 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The clock really was ticking on this so-called economic boom. A product in many economic accounts of Keynesian-type fantasy, the destructive effects of last year’s hurricanes in sharp contrast to this year’s (which haven’t yet registered a direct hit on a major metropolitan area or areas, as was the case with Harvey and Irma) meant [...]

What May Be The Final Month of the Fake News Boom

By |2018-09-14T11:30:23+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second consecutive month, retail sales recorded by gasoline stations surged by an annual rate of more than 20%. It was the fourth month in a row where sales have been up by nearly that amount. Last year’s jump in oil prices is feeding through in a number of ways. From headline inflation rates [...]

The First Global Domino Tips

By |2018-08-31T12:38:35+00:00August 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s hard to believe it was only about three months ago. Time flies when disaster unfolds all around you. In early June, Brazil’s central bank arranged a press conference where its President Ilan Goldfajn would set everyone straight. The currency was falling, he admitted, but it would be easily handled by closely following the Portuguese [...]

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much

By |2018-08-29T17:23:13+00:00August 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky high. The business association’s index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn’t seen since the apex of the dot-com days. Though I’m not sure that’s really a positive reflection on the economy, the mainstream verdict is as usual quite different. U.S. consumer confidence surged [...]

The Auto Business Is Overall Business

By |2018-08-16T17:32:08+00:00August 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

Automobiles have come a long way in two decades. The import craze of this latest bout of globalization was in the car business handed an open door by a lack of quality, or perceptions about a lack of quality. The domestic auto industry in the seventies and eighties really did not shine its brightest. By [...]

What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

By |2018-08-15T15:58:45+00:00August 15th, 2018|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%. The last time they surged this [...]

Housing Errors

By |2018-07-23T11:51:14+00:00July 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One way to read the inversion in eurodollar futures is that the market expects the Federal Reserve to ignore growing economic and financial concerns. There is a very reasonable basis for this structure given recent history. Central bankers and Economists have shown a remarkable, and remarkably consistent, ability to talk themselves out of any negative [...]

There Isn’t Supposed To Be The Two Directions of IP

By |2018-06-15T16:24:55+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US Industrial Production dipped in May 2018. It was the first monthly drop since January. Year-over-year, IP was up just 3.5% from May 2017, down from 3.6% in each of prior three months. The reason for the soft spot was that American industry is being pulled in different directions by the two most important sectors: [...]