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contango

Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

By |2020-12-09T17:20:13-05:00December 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously. Legacy of the 1970’s experience depending too much on OPEC, subject to embargoes, American oil companies had been prohibited for decades from exporting oil. Not that it would have mattered before 2014, the [...]

The Established Slowdown of Today vs. At Least Tomorrow’s Vaccine Is Not The Same ‘Stimulus’

By |2020-11-25T18:25:43-05:00November 25th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The oil market has caught a mild case of the raging disease. Not COVID, rather the purported cure for it. Vaccine-phoria has visited the energy sector and propelled oil prices upward while pulling less contango in the futures curve, awakening this commodity market from its post-August doldrums. It had been that detour in WTI which began to suggest this summer [...]

What’s Going On, And Why Late August?

By |2020-10-28T19:06:31-04:00October 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?What you’ll hear or have already heard is something about Europe and more lockdowns, fears about a second wave of the [...]

Yep, There’s A New ‘V’ In Town And The Locals…Don’t Seem To Much Care For It

By |2020-10-21T16:54:10-04:00October 21st, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage. Getting back to just even with February instead is becoming a distant probability, the kind of [...]

Even More Suggesting Something Did Happen In July

By |2020-09-09T17:26:39-04:00September 9th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Confident consumers are risk takers. Not only do they spend freely, they freely borrow in order to spend. Jay Powell has done his absolute best (I know) to convince Americans they have nothing to fear insofar as any economic fallout from COVID might be concerned. The Federal Reserve working in combination with the federal government has got every conceivable angle [...]

What Was Monday’s Negative Oil, And Why It Was Overshadowed On Tuesday

By |2020-04-22T11:59:46-04:00April 22nd, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, the WTI curve flipped to [...]

A Crude Future View From The Crude Curve

By |2020-04-14T19:02:52-04:00April 14th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Concerns about the economy have overtaken concerns about the virus. That’s the conclusion reached by a series of polls conducted at fivethirtyeight.com. According to their surveys, Americans remain very concerned about the pandemic to start with. Thirty-eight percent say that, up from about 18% back at the beginning of March.In terms of the economy, 57% are now “very concerned.” That’s [...]

The Black (Eye) Curve

By |2020-03-09T12:04:02-04:00March 9th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An honest-to-goodness oil crash. For a time this morning, the front month WTI futures contract had fallen into the $20s for the first time since Euro$ #3. Up to now, that prior outbreak had been the more (in)famous as far as crude prices have been concerned. Over the intervening years, it was thought that supply and demand had been made [...]

The Black Curve

By |2020-02-27T19:19:25-05:00February 27th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The WTI futures curve is supposed to be in backwardation, though the word “supposed” is a loaded term. Backwardation is more of an ideal condition than one you might find most often in practice. There’s almost as much contango as backwardation in the futures market’s history. It’s not so easy to balance all the complexities that are spun through oil [...]

COT Black: German Factories, Oklahoma Tank Farms, And FRBNY

By |2020-02-06T19:11:14-05:00February 6th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I wrote a few months ago that Germany’s factories have been the perfect example of the eurodollar squeeze. The disinflationary tendency that even central bankers can’t ignore once it shows up in the global economy as obvious headwinds. What made and still makes German industry noteworthy is the way it has unfolded and continues to unfold. The downtrend just won’t [...]

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