COT

COT Black: Term Oil Means Turmoil

By |2018-10-29T12:57:27+00:00October 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria was as much crude oil as anything else. After all, it was the sudden spike higher in oil prices that would eventually push the US CPI, PCE Deflator, Europe’s HICP, and even Japan’s moribund inflation index. Central bankers were giddy, as was mainstream commentary extrapolating these trajectories into actual economic acceleration. For a [...]

COT Blue: A Short-term Path For Powell

By |2018-10-22T17:31:53+00:00October 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve announced its entry into emergency “non-standard” policy measures. In a belated attempt to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets”, the US central bank would begin auctioning reserve funds “against the wide variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount window.” The Term [...]

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04+00:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08+00:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is [...]

COT Blue: Reflation Doubts Accumulate

By |2018-07-11T11:34:13+00:00July 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I doubt there will be an official report created and published surrounding the events of May 29. Unlike those on October 15, 2014, which did trigger a Treasury Department alphabet-soup-of-partners response, it wasn’t crashy enough this time around. The UST market experienced a true panic more than three and a half years ago, though one [...]

COT Blue: A Decade of Weird

By |2018-03-16T16:17:47+00:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On July 15, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat in front of Congress for the second of his required Humphrey-Hawkins reports for that year. The original act meant for these to be more than bland economic obfuscation, where the original Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 demanded monetary targets. The Fed stopped [...]

COT Black, Green, and Blue; Extremes But Not Extremes

By |2018-02-12T17:30:56+00:00February 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No matter where one looks, there is extreme positioning in all the key markets. Each one is pulled further and further toward “reflation”, too, or in the case of the euro this “falling dollar” consistent with that idea. The world is betting big on it finally coming true, the “globally synchronized growth” to this point [...]

COT Blue: Interest In Open Interest

By |2018-02-07T16:15:31+00:00February 7th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For me, the defining characteristic of the late nineties wasn’t the dot-coms. Most people were exposed to the NASDAQ because, frankly, at the time there was no getting away from it. It had seeped into everything, transforming from a financial niche bleeding eventually into the entire worldwide culture. We all remember the grocery clerks who [...]