For Episode 74.0 of Eurodollar University’s Making Sense, Emil and I were incredibly honored and thrilled to have been able to bring on Allison Fedirka from Geopolitical Futures, the outfit of George Friedman fame. Specifically, we were interested in her specialty which is Latin America because after China that’s where you want to go next to understand how developments money [...]
I suppose you can admire their zeal and persistence, but then again what is a zealot without his or her zeal? The desperation by which to rescue the Fed’s money printing exercise is palpable. Stocks, sure, bonds, however, aren’t making it easy. Especially inflation expectations which are crucial to Jay Powell’s fairy tale.That whole flood. Over the last several days, [...]
This is not a man who’s comfortable thrust into a position of leadership. Say what you want about Ben Bernanke, and there’s a lot that still needs to be said, he at least carried on with the arrogance through thick and thin (almost entirely the latter). Jay Powell sounds like a boxer who just realized the lightweight he thought he [...]
Another day, another new Federal Reserve “bailout.” As these things go by, quickly, the details become less important. What is the central bank doing today? Does it really matter?For me, twice was enough. All the way back in 2010 I had expected other people to react as I did to QE2. If you have to do it twice, it doesn’t [...]
During the first quarter of 2008, as Bear Stearns teetered on the edge of illiquidity, foreign holders of US$ financial assets contributed $9.3 trillion to US credit markets. According to the Fed’s Z1, the Financial Accounts of the United States, it tells us that’s the amount they held in possession from outside the American geographical boundary. Considering at the same [...]
Back in March, the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve stated the obvious. US home construction was stuck near the lowest level in the 60 years of records being kept. Despite a decade having passed since the prior bust turned to boom, and with the economy booming, it was apparently worth mentioning. Obviously, it wasn’t obvious to everyone since [...]
It’s hard to believe it was only about three months ago. Time flies when disaster unfolds all around you. In early June, Brazil’s central bank arranged a press conference where its President Ilan Goldfajn would set everyone straight. The currency was falling, he admitted, but it would be easily handled by closely following the Portuguese version of the global central [...]
I ended my last piece on Brazil's depressing state with the following: And the media in the developed world will dismiss all of this as Brazil being Brazil, South America’s basket case reverting to type. The siren song of globally synchronized growth has gripped all commentary, and they aren’t about to let it go now. Certainly not for the other [...]
A recent poll in Brazil showed that one-third of Brazilians favor “military intervention.” The country had been gripped by a crippling trucker’s strike, the results of which have been almost complete economic shutdown. Intervention, as it is softly termed, would be nothing less than a coup. The direct cause of the strike is quite simple. Under former President Dilma Rousseff, [...]
You’ve heard all the ridiculous explanations for the labor market’s big deficiency. When not attempting to characterize payrolls as strong, Economists have tried to explain the participation problem through opioids and Baby Boomers. According to this absurd theory, businesses just can’t find enough willing or able workers to grow in a more normal fashion. That’s the unemployment rate. What they [...]
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