depression

The First Global Domino Tips

By |2018-08-31T12:38:35+00:00August 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s hard to believe it was only about three months ago. Time flies when disaster unfolds all around you. In early June, Brazil’s central bank arranged a press conference where its President Ilan Goldfajn would set everyone straight. The currency was falling, he admitted, but it would be easily handled by closely following the Portuguese [...]

What Happens When The Dollar Double Whammy Lands On You (Again)

By |2018-06-05T18:06:18+00:00June 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A recent poll in Brazil showed that one-third of Brazilians favor “military intervention.” The country had been gripped by a crippling trucker’s strike, the results of which have been almost complete economic shutdown. Intervention, as it is softly termed, would be nothing less than a coup. The direct cause of the strike is quite simple. [...]

Profits, Bubbles, And Labor That’s Missing But Not Unexplained

By |2018-05-30T11:59:29+00:00May 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You’ve heard all the ridiculous explanations for the labor market’s big deficiency. When not attempting to characterize payrolls as strong, Economists have tried to explain the participation problem through opioids and Baby Boomers. According to this absurd theory, businesses just can’t find enough willing or able workers to grow in a more normal fashion. That’s [...]

Historical Precedence For How A Bond ‘Bubble’ Ends

By |2017-11-14T18:26:25+00:00November 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The UK government tried very hard to hold on. They had been able to raise $200 million from JP Morgan, a significant sum at that time under those circumstances. The British had also secured an almost equal amount from banks in France. The new National Government had produced a budget slashing spending by £70 million, [...]

Even Less Inside Q3 GDP, Especially Where It Counts

By |2017-10-27T17:30:29+00:00October 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inside the advance third quarter GDP report, the details in most of the important categories suggested slowing after two quarters consistent with “reflation” at least in its third try. If the economy swings between shallow downturns and often shallower upturns, these subcategories give us some insight as to why. Overall, growth remains at a level [...]

Getting Harder Not Easier To Find Macro Improvement in 2017 (Housing)

By |2017-08-24T18:47:29+00:00August 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The most recent housing data continues to suggest weakness. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that sales of existing homes were down slightly last month from June. It continues a lower trend dating back to March. Overall, the level of resales is largely flat going back to the summer of 2015. At a 5.44 [...]

If 2014 Was Ultimately a Letdown, What Might 2017 Be?

By |2017-08-23T15:51:20+00:00August 23rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today’s topic du jour isn’t even a word but an abbreviated name. Whereas yesterday markets were somewhat spooked by a relatively obscure British firm, Provident, today they are again by still another. This time it’s WPP Plc, an advertising aggregation firm that owns a sizable portfolio of ad agencies located all around the world. Given [...]