dollar shortage

Curious Rush To Combine German Banks

By |2018-12-12T18:21:31+00:00December 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Markets today celebrated more bad news out of Germany. Misunderstanding especially in stocks is par for the course, not that it’s much better outside of them. German officials are laying the groundwork to change the nation’s banking laws so that it’s two largest banks, really “banks”, can more easily combine. If it should ever come [...]

Selling UST’s + Hedging Costs ≠ BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-11-26T16:54:05+00:00November 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Maybe blame the ECB. On June 5, 2014, Europe’s central bank announced a change in monetary policy. Beginning June 11, their deposit account mechanism that acts as a hard floor for European money rates would be set below zero for the first time. It would mean any funds left on deposit with the ECB in [...]

China’s (not) SAFE

By |2018-11-07T19:19:16+00:00November 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again. Three years ago, in a futile attempt to staunch CNY’s stubborn “devaluation” various government authorities blew through just about $1 trillion. It didn’t work. You would think that everyone could learn from this episode. I think the Chinese did, which [...]

The Last Holdout

By |2018-10-23T19:20:44+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

True to form, whoever holds the government it is for them the best economy ever. It doesn’t matter political parties or otherwise affiliations. The rhetoric has become so unhinged that in the US former President Obama is trying to take credit for current President Trump’s economic “miracle” – that doesn’t actually exist. In India, the [...]

Stop(ped) The (Printing) Press

By |2018-10-22T12:33:30+00:00October 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Banks in China have to hoard liquidity ahead of their weeklong holidays, twice each year. The bigger of the two, related to the Chinese New Year, occurs in either January or February. The second, associated with China’s National Day, takes place at the beginning of every October and is still a formidable challenge to the [...]

China Reopens With Another Dollar Warning

By |2018-10-08T19:11:16+00:00October 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s one of those useless explanations that while technically true tells us nothing of value about the situation. The Chinese are never boring when coming back from a Golden Week holiday. This weekend was no exception, China’s reopening bringing with it the news of yet another cut in that country’s bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR). [...]

A Long Dollar Story: China’s Short Profits, Prices, and Producers

By |2018-09-10T16:59:18+00:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first half of the Great “Recession”, China and the rest of the EM world seemed immune. It was American subprime mortgages that we were told was causing all the problems, and if European banks had somehow gotten themselves entangled in the rotten real estate mess so much the better for where growth was [...]