China’s Economy Is Not Crashing, It’s Worse Than That

By |2018-10-19T11:50:19+00:00October 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s economy is not crashing. Hyperbole works both ways. Last year and this, the smallest increment above a prior number was broadcast out as the greatest thing ever (US wage growth in particular), irrefutable proof of globally synchronized growth. Now that that’s over with, largely, there will be a tendency toward the other extreme. The [...]

Not A Good Start For China’s Third R

By |2018-10-17T16:39:56+00:00October 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

File it under “what were they thinking?” In March 2015, confronted by a severe external monetary squeeze, the PBOC made a truly radical choice. Maybe it was that for a few months anyway things looked a little better. The eurodollar system had practically melted down globally first on October 15, 2014 (collateral) and then in [...]

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23+00:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And [...]

They Want To Call It India’s Lehman, It’s Just Dollar

By |2018-10-02T18:08:44+00:00October 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurobonds are not a perfect substitute, but they may be someone’s only alternative. In some ways, Reflation #3’s weakness can be found originating in this context. The “rising dollar”, or eurodollar squeeze, of 2014-16 was a failure and even run on credit-based dollar funding offshore. If banks won’t deliver dollars, what’s left? Bonds. There has [...]

1984 + Bono = Life Imitating Art

By |2018-09-24T17:06:08+00:00September 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was never trade wars. Geopolitics draws the online clicks, real answers were always something else. In a world where populism is the rising political strain, you would think there would be honesty in trying to assess its roots. It would require, however, honest thinking. That’s been in short supply for a very long time. [...]

Monetary Hierarchy, Independence, And Shaming Greenspan Yet Again

By |2018-09-21T17:30:01+00:00September 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In June 2003, while discussing the vote that would take the federal funds rate to its then-lowest point, 1%, Alan Greenspan committed what may have been the greatest monetary sin of modern times. The focus for much of the discussion was Japan, that country’s central bank pioneering at that early date all the things the [...]