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Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Things That Need To Happen

By |2022-07-04T18:11:29-04:00July 4th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Perspective: per·​spec·​tive | \ pər-ˈspek-tiv b: the capacity to view things in their true relations or relative importance Merriam-Webster Perspective is something that comes with age I think. Certainly, as I've gotten older, my perspective on things has changed considerably. As we age, we tend to see things from a longer-term view. Things that seemed so important at the time, years ago, turned out [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Illusion of Control

By |2021-08-30T07:47:06-04:00August 29th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Jerome Powell delivered his long-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole last week. Well actually, I have no idea if he was actually in Jackson Hole since the speech was delivered electronically, another victim of the delta variant. The virus itself rated barely a mention in Mr. Powell's remarks and I think that is probably as it should be. There has been [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: All or Nothing Investing

By |2021-08-22T23:41:25-04:00August 22nd, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

This week marks a change in our economic environment or at least our perception of it. Last year, post-COVID onset, we characterized the environment as one marked by a falling dollar and improving growth. To be exact, that is the environment the markets reflected; interest rates were rising, the yield curve was steepening and the dollar was falling. That changed [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Trading Places

By |2021-08-02T07:37:59-04:00August 1st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

They're out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They're out there. They're panicking. Look at them. - Eddie Murphy as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places I thought of that scene the other day when a good friend in the investment business told me that investors today are panicking into the market rather than out as they were [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: 1984

By |2021-06-28T07:38:58-04:00June 27th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. George Orwell, 1984 I have said many times and believe deeply that our job as investors is not to predict the future but merely to interpret the present as accurately as we can. I've also said and believe deeply that doing [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Embrace The Uncertainty

By |2019-10-23T15:09:17-04:00March 27th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear There's a man with a gun over there Telling me I got to beware I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound Everybody look what's going down There's battle lines being drawn Nobody's right if everybody's wrong Young people speaking their minds Getting so much resistance from behind [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues

By |2019-10-23T15:09:40-04:00March 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree but I don't let my [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

By |2019-10-23T15:09:47-04:00November 7th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and [...]

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