The economic reports released since the last update were slightly more upbeat than the previous period. The economic surprises have largely been on the positive side but there were some major disappointments as well. The economy has been doing this for several years now, one part of the economy waxing while another wanes and the overall trajectory not much changed. [...]
This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear. Growth has oscillated around a 2% rate for most of the expansion, falling at [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard Two reports over the last two weeks epitomize the bifurcated nature of the US economy. The durable goods report last week was just plain awful from top to bottom. Orders down 4% month to month and 6.4% year over year. Ex-transportation -0.5% month to month and -3.6% year over year. Core capital goods orders up slightly month [...]
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