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economic boom

It’s Booming, Alright

By |2018-12-03T16:59:59-05:00December 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In most cases, it all seems so far away. I write about the shrunken global economy all the time. The evidence is all around, and yet still somehow it seems like some remote dreamscape. Human evolution hasn’t prepared us to be able to accept something so big and unconscionable. Most people’s initial response is, “what do you mean the economy [...]

It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom

By |2018-07-12T16:34:28-04:00July 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. Data is coming in for June 2018, meaning half of this year already recorded and analyzed. It’s not what it was supposed to have been. [...]

Three Months Now of After-Harvey Retail Sales; or, The Boom Narrative Goes Boom

By |2018-03-14T16:39:28-04:00March 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If indeed this inflation hysteria has passed, its peak was surely late January. Even the stock market liquidations that showed up at that time were classified under that narrative. The economy was so good, it was bad; the Fed would be forced by rapid economic acceleration to speed themselves up before that acceleration got out of hand in uncontrolled consumer [...]

The Unusually Hollow Boom

By |2018-01-29T18:34:53-05:00January 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For GDP, one big piece that’s missing, or what’s kept it at a lower rate than in the comparable 2014 period, is inventory. Three and four years ago, American businesses couldn’t get enough. They piled into it at a record pace. The reason they did was almost surely Janet Yellen, or at the very least the mainstream economic projections that [...]

The Dismal Boom

By |2018-01-24T16:46:48-05:00January 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define the difference between growth and [...]

Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

By |2014-09-01T14:59:13-04:00September 1st, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I've mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I'm a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are a form of intellectual competition, [...]

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