fbpx

emerging markets

Weekly Market Pulse: A Very Contrarian View

By |2022-01-18T08:11:22-05:00January 17th, 2022|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

What is the consensus about the economy today? Will 2022 growth be better or worse than 2021? Actually, that probably isn't the right question because the economy slowed significantly in the second half of 2021. The real question is whether growth will improve from that reduced pace. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker now has Q4 growth all the way down [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Zooming Out

By |2021-10-04T07:35:32-04:00October 3rd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

How often do you check your brokerage account? There is a famous economics paper from 1997, written by some of the giants in behavioral finance (Thaler, Kahnemann, Tversky & Schwartz), that tested what is known as myopic loss aversion. What they found was that investors who check their performance less frequently are more willing to take risk and experience higher [...]

More Dollar Bull

By |2021-09-29T20:41:09-04:00September 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Valentine’s Day, and no one would love the US dollar. There was, instead, quite a lot of disdain for it fueling the usual loud voices who continue to hate it and predict its imminent demise year after year. This particularly lovely day in February 2018 seemed to have added more to the downside cheerleading; the US PPI came in red [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Windshield Investing

By |2021-09-07T07:01:12-04:00September 6th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The economic slowdown we've been writing about for months officially arrived last Friday in the form of a particularly weak employment report. The number of new jobs created last month - or at least the WAG the BLS makes at such things on a monthly basis - was a mere 235,000 or roughly a cool half-million less than expected by [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Trading Places

By |2021-08-02T07:37:59-04:00August 1st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

They're out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They're out there. They're panicking. Look at them. - Eddie Murphy as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places I thought of that scene the other day when a good friend in the investment business told me that investors today are panicking into the market rather than out as they were [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: As Clear As Mud

By |2021-07-19T08:07:27-04:00July 18th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Never Mind

By |2021-06-21T08:12:02-04:00June 20th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I thought of Gilda Radner this past week. Actually, I thought of a character she created on the original Saturday Night Live, Emily Litella, who was a regular on the Weekend Update segment. She'd start to rant about something topical, getting it completely wrong at which point Jane Curtin or Chevy Chase would explain it to her and she'd respond. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perception is Reality

By |2021-04-04T12:53:08-04:00March 29th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It is said that there are two types of people in this world. Those who see the glass as half full and those who see it as half empty. On Wall Street, we call them bulls and bears. A bull can see an economic report and perceive it in a way that seems wholly illogical, misguided, and downright stupid to [...]

Standard Textbook Dollar, Or Eurodollar Standard?

By |2021-03-08T20:06:11-05:00March 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s standard textbook stuff. Convention has it that “capital flows” are determined by the portfolio effects of interest rate differentials. Quite simply, if yields aren’t very high for low risk US instruments (like UST’s) or their European counterparts, fixed income managers must go hunting for yields overseas in Emerging Markets who offer fatter returns by comparison. Thus, “capital” is said [...]

Weekly Market Pulse – The Message Of The Market

By |2021-02-28T19:33:15-05:00February 28th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

I was told many years ago when I started in this business that it wasn't my job to predict the future. Our job as investors is to properly and accurately interpret the present. I was also told that wasn't as easy as it sounded and the current consensus about the state of the world was probably, almost certainly, almost always, [...]

Go to Top