employment

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

By |2018-06-05T16:50:25+00:00June 5th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

By |2018-05-21T20:48:14+00:00May 21st, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year - and in future years - due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect

By |2018-04-10T17:35:14+00:00April 10th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The market volatility this year has been blamed on a lot of factors. The initial selloff was blamed on a hotter than expected wage number in the January employment report that supposedly sparked concerns about inflation - although a similar number this month wasn't mentioned as a cause of last Friday's selling. The unwinding of [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues

By |2018-03-13T21:05:58+00:00March 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree [...]

Where’s The Inflation? Average Weekly Earnings Flat, Focus on 200k Instead Which Isn’t Even A Good Number

By |2018-02-02T15:36:55+00:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate, I’m sorry to report, didn’t tumble all the way to zero. Pity. It did stay at 4.1% for the fourth straight month. Because of that, wage pressures should be exploding right now. That seems to be the verdict in markets this morning, a rumble of inflation shot right through everything at the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Weak Dollar Stirs A Toxic Stew

By |2018-01-15T17:48:01+00:00January 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time - slowly - and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking [...]

It’s Not Easy To See

By |2017-10-10T16:33:53+00:00October 10th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are supposedly jobs that Americans won’t do, and now there are, apparently, jobs that British won’t do. In the latter case, according to the UK’s Minister of State and Commonwealth, Sir Alan Duncan, it is the Europeans who were blamed for taking work from native English. The result was, in his view, Brexit. Duncan [...]