establishment survey

Payrolls Too; Inflation Hysteria Gives Way to Inversion Unease

By |2018-12-07T12:08:45+00:00December 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unfortunately for Jay Powell, labor statistics are at best backward looking and often just plain misleading. Can you imagine if the wage data contained with November 2018’s payroll report had been released last December instead? Today, pretty much nobody cares anymore. We’ve flipped from inflation hysteria to inversion unease and that was always the appropriate [...]

Living With Nothing; Or, ‘If You Don’t Like This One Nothing Is Going To Make You Happy’

By |2018-11-02T12:25:28+00:00November 2nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 5, 2014, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in the month of November 2014 nonfarm private payrolls had surged by +321k. Typically bureaucratic, the introduction to the report was unusually blunt. “Job gains were widespread.” The text didn’t come right out and say it so the media did it all for [...]

Tropical Labor Math

By |2018-10-05T12:00:35+00:00October 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was coming, it wasn’t coming. On again, off again. Voluntary evacuations, all clears, and then the rushed mandatory removals. When Hurricane Bonnie finally made landfall, it left people more angry than usual with these kinds of storms. Weather officials just didn’t know where it would end up. In eventually would smack right into Virginia’s [...]

Payrolls: Deadly Low

By |2018-08-03T13:00:17+00:00August 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economists say that the labor market is being restrained by secular factors, those outside of regular macro potential. These are opioid use, demographic changes toward an older population, and the downside effects of globalization as it alters the skills required by employers. Between drug addicts, retiring Baby Boomers, and lazy Americans who won’t go back [...]

The Unemployment Rate Is Useless, But That Doesn’t Mean It Isn’t Useful

By |2018-06-01T18:15:50+00:00June 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At a campaign rally in New Mexico in May 2016, Presidential Candidate Donald Trump returned to one of his favorite themes. It was a package deal. He first talked about NAFTA and what he considered the negative effects the trade agreement had had on American workers. That easily segued into what had by then become [...]

Payroll Time

By |2018-04-06T13:37:15+00:00April 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Never get hung up on one payroll report, good or bad. The Establishment Survey series, seasonally-adjusted and statistically smoothed as much as humanly possible, is still incredibly noisy. It didn’t used to be this way, which is an important clue that “something” has changed. The lack of consistency in the monthly measurement is as the [...]

The Return of The Perfect Payrolls

By |2018-03-09T12:23:24+00:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past two days, Chinese exports exploded, US payrolls bested 300k, and China’s CPI recorded the hottest inflation in 5 years. Globally synchronized growth? It’s times like these where remembering how nothing goes in a straight line helps settle and ground interpretations. In thinking that way already, you are never surprised when there are [...]

More Hurricane Effects Wear Off; Auto Sales Slump in January

By |2018-02-02T17:23:45+00:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The storm-assisted car-fest that ended last year appears to be fully winding down. Automakers overall posted weak sales to start 2018. They are putting on their best face, admitting widely that this year was going to be a tough one anyway as if they expected it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, total sales [...]