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eurodollar futures

A Heavy Duty Recession Indicator

By |2023-02-07T18:22:47-05:00February 7th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy|

I was reading Bill McBride's blog, Calculated Risk, recently and came across this post on heavy truck sales as a recession indicator. As Bill notes: Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were solid in January. It certainly looks like sales do indeed peak before recession. But how long before recession? Does this really work as [...]

Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

By |2022-06-29T20:06:25-04:00June 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.From [...]

Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-19T02:04:26-04:00June 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent.Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best [...]

Complete Catalog of Chaos and Carnage

By |2022-06-16T19:41:28-04:00June 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wow, what an incredible day across the entire marketplace. And by incredible I mean nothing good at all. Predictable, though. All the warning signs and warned-about fragilities playing out as expected, escalation up and down each curve or equity index. To start with, I still don’t really know where the bills are right now! That it is even a question [...]

A Triple Dose of the Real Fed

By |2022-06-15T19:46:36-04:00June 15th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today was a wonder to behold, Jay Powell performing at his absolutely most Volcker-esque. The biggest single-meeting rate hike since ’94, a triple-dipper 75 bps, all because the Fed thinks the US economy most threatened by inflation. Total seventies vibes. That’s not what invoked the myth, though. Instead, it was how just like his ancient predecessor, the current Fed Chairman [...]

More Data And Markets To The Idea Something (big) Changed A Couple Months Ago

By |2022-06-14T18:38:43-04:00June 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It takes time even for a powerful eruption of deflationary money to get sorted into the real economy. Nothing goes in a straight line and even big changes don't just happen right away. The last time, Euro$ #4, it began early in 2018 triggering all kinds of financial disruptions and monetary fireworks. The same familiar indications, rising dollar, flattening and [...]

UST 2s & Euro$ Futures *Whites* Both Ask, Landmine At Last?

By |2022-05-24T19:56:19-04:00May 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The 2-year Treasury right now is the key point, the spot on the yield curve which is influenced mostly by potential alternative rates including those offered by the Federal Reserve. Because of this, the market for the 2s is looking forward at what those alternate rates are likely to be, then pricing yields accordingly. Since the FOMC sets those alternative [...]

Dollar Now Leads, Rest Of The Market Pack Now Follows

By |2022-05-06T20:14:29-04:00May 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US$ continues on its rampage, particularly zeroed in on China for simple if misunderstood reasons (that have nothing to do with “devaluation”). What about the rest of the marketplace, the other stuff which identifies the eurodollar’s various cycles? You know about T-bills, which, yet again today, are more like what the dollar is suggesting. Other than those, what’s the [...]

*Every* Time, Debt Ceiling Impacts Collateral Producing Inevitable Deflationary Currency

By |2022-04-07T20:15:34-04:00April 7th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last September 28, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Nancy Pelosi of the House of Representatives to inform its Speaker that the government would run out of cash, and accounting tricks, by October 18. Unless Congress, starting in the House, did something about the so-called debt ceiling, Treasury would be forced to take even more restrictive, potentially destructive means to [...]

Inversions And Inventory, The Major Products of October

By |2022-03-28T18:21:31-04:00March 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What happened in October 2021? Another year’s Halloween, sure, some beerfest gluttony around the world. For all the happy revelries in that month the financial markets took a decidedly ominous turn. It hadn’t exactly been all rainbows and unicorns in them before then, yet they were at least stable to slightly optimistic about the future for 2022 or beyond.The list [...]

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