eurodollar futures

Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

By |2018-09-12T17:56:50+00:00September 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy. The problem has been that [...]

Bond JOLTS Without Wages To Back Just JO

By |2018-09-11T17:46:59+00:00September 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the absence of a booming economy, one has been conjured from a select few employment statistics. The catalog, beginning in 2014, consisted of a rapidly falling unemployment rate, the Establishment Survey which dazzled with headline payroll growth supposedly adding up to the “best jobs market in decades”, and the JOLTS series but curiously omitting [...]

The Price of Mispricing

By |2018-08-22T17:14:50+00:00August 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC statement for the July-August 2018 policy meeting exceeded expectations once more. It’s difficult for the Committee to continually do this since the whole point of these things is to downplay all expectations. The goal is to make everything seem boring and uninteresting, if the Federal Reserve is doing its job. But they are [...]

Whose Tightening Is It Anyway?

By |2018-08-21T16:15:14+00:00August 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose it’s only fair. After all, they started it. Earlier in the year, Federal Reserve officials including Chairman Jay Powell suggested it was all Trump’s fault. The abrupt difficulties presented by the dollar were, they said, the result of tax cuts swelling the deficit and thereby threatening capital markets with a “deluge” of Treasury [...]

Just Who, Exactly, Is So Optimistic?

By |2018-07-26T18:41:45+00:00July 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

BNP Paribas is apparently calling for an epic rout in German bunds. According to Bloomberg (who else?) it’s a mini-revival of Bill Gross’ ill-fated tweet advertising the “short of a lifetime.” In April 2015, the man many called the bond king said it was going to be better than the pound in 1993. https://twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624 Gross [...]

It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom

By |2018-07-12T16:34:28+00:00July 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. Data is coming in for June 2018, meaning half of this year already recorded and analyzed. It’s not what it [...]

Curves Have Been Here The Whole Time, Not That Anyone Cared

By |2018-07-10T19:07:04+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether we notice them or not, there are a lot of things that do happen on a seasonal basis. Economists have tried to eliminate these patterns from our thoughts and analysis largely by smoothing them out with seasonal adjustments. But in money as markets there remain these bottlenecks. People have asked me from time to [...]