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Leave It To Eurodollar

By |2022-06-30T17:14:09-04:00June 30th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was the laziest of arguments, saturated with desperation, too, the equivalent of waving around sophistry to answer for the painfully contradictory truth. Now that feces and fans are getting further acquainted, we have the necessary perspective to settle the matter once and for all. The matter refuses to be settled, however; I mean, it’s 2022 and we’re still arguing [...]

Wait A Sec, That’s Not Really An *RMB* Liquidity Pool…

By |2022-06-27T20:25:13-04:00June 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ben Bernanke once admitted how the job of the post-truth “central banker” is to try to convince the market to do your work for you. What he didn’t say was that this was the only prayer officials had for any success. Because if the market ever decided that talk wasn’t enough, only real money in hand would do, everyone’d be [...]

Complete Catalog of Chaos and Carnage

By |2022-06-16T19:41:28-04:00June 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wow, what an incredible day across the entire marketplace. And by incredible I mean nothing good at all. Predictable, though. All the warning signs and warned-about fragilities playing out as expected, escalation up and down each curve or equity index. To start with, I still don’t really know where the bills are right now! That it is even a question [...]

Globally Synchronized Last October, Not Some Far-Distant Future Risk

By |2022-06-14T20:23:23-04:00June 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rate hikes weren’t even a twinkle in Chairman Powell’s eye, not really. Taper was barely on the table at that time, let alone double-taper or today’s rush into QT. Back in October, they all (correctly) still used the word transitory, therefore officials were taking their sweet time winding down QE6.With the Fed barely evolving from full-on – so it couldn’t [...]

World Bank Tries Reconciling Rapidly Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-07T20:03:45-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As it now stands, the World Bank isn’t currently forecasting recession sweeping across the globe. Instead, the organization is merely warning this is a growing possibility. Econometric models abhor making big changes to projections within small timeframes, yet the regressions employed here couldn’t be helped this time.Back in January, at the last issue of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, [...]

Peak Policy Error

By |2022-05-27T17:33:38-04:00May 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Another economic discussion lost to the eventual coronavirus pandemic mania was the 2019 globally synchronized downturn. Not just downturn, outright recession in key parts from around the world, maybe including the US. We’ll simply never know for sure because just when it was happening COVID struck and then governments overrode everything including unfolding history.What anyone can say for sure is [...]

T-bills Targeted Target

By |2022-05-19T20:00:57-04:00May 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe [...]

Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC

By |2022-05-18T20:30:35-04:00May 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that same shortfall before the yield curve then joined the eurodollar futures curve being inverted. It really hasn’t been the same since.Looking back on it using the [...]

Industrial Synchronized Demand

By |2022-05-10T20:05:48-04:00May 10th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]

Why CNY DOWN = BAD (Part 3) For Everyone

By |2022-05-09T17:44:02-04:00May 9th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is basically a rhetorical question drawn from a generally rhetorical exercise. We’ll never know for sure, this is about China, after all. Transparency is a Western obsession and a curse for the committed Communists. Particularly when the Party of “Science” starts to lose control of the situation when such a possibility has been treated as pure blasphemy.Did the Chinese [...]

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