Europe

Synchronized Again?

By |2018-09-21T12:14:10+00:00September 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year around this time, the tropics provided some unintentional basis for what would become hysteria. Hurricane Harvey by soaking a major metropolitan area with a biblical amount of rainfall delighted Keynesians everywhere. So much destruction, so much economic growth potential on the rebuild. Then Irma flirted with the Gulf Coast spine of Florida for [...]

TIC For July 2018: June Was Even Bigger Than We Thought, Meaning May 29

By |2018-09-18T17:33:50+00:00September 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You never quite know what you’re going to get with each monthly update. High frequency data tends to be noisy anyway, more so in the more exotic series. Following a month where something really changes, however, you aren’t quite sure if it will turn out to be nothing more than a phantom. Does last month’s [...]

ECB (Data) Independence

By |2018-09-13T19:01:19+00:00September 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent - at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their [...]

Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

By |2018-09-12T17:56:50+00:00September 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy. The problem has been that [...]

Yes, Sweden Is A Domino

By |2018-09-12T12:17:39+00:00September 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the weekend, another European nation turned toward the populist direction. It was enough to get one’s attention when Italy did it, but Sweden is something else altogether. The country has been long held out as an exemplar of everything that is right with globalization. They have industry, youth, etc. How in the world could [...]

Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

By |2018-08-23T16:38:48+00:00August 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. That’s been the basis of [...]

The Race We All Lose

By |2018-08-03T17:48:41+00:00August 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal. Pedigree matters, a fact easily established by how easy it is for central bankers and former central bankers to have their thoughts published in any mainstream outlet of their choosing. Record doesn’t mean so much, performance on [...]

The Quarks and Quirks of CNY’s Big Drop

By |2018-07-25T13:04:08+00:00July 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 1962, physicist Wolfgang Panofsky finally obtained funding from the Atomic Energy Commission. As a faculty member at Stanford University he wanted the federal government to fund his monster. Dubbed Project M, for monster, Dr. Panofsky was seeking a method for scientists to obtain evidence for what was really going on inside the atom. The [...]