exports

China Going Back To 2011

By |2018-12-10T12:33:58+00:00December 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The enormous setback hadn’t yet been fully appreciated in March 2012 when China’s Premiere Wen Jiabao spoke to and on behalf of the country’s Communist governing State Council. Despite it having been four years since Bear Stearns had grabbed the whole world’s attention (for reasons the whole world wouldn’t fully comprehend, specifically as to why [...]

Converging Views Only Starts With Fed ‘Pause’

By |2018-12-06T18:25:19+00:00December 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is something else suggesting a slowdown. That much had been evident across much of the global economy, but this is now different. The US has apparently been infected, too, not that [...]

The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

By |2018-11-27T12:47:04+00:00November 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 [...]

Why Chinese Authorities Are Freaking Out

By |2018-11-09T12:03:43+00:00November 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always a fine line for authorities. There are times when avoiding intervention is more effective than intervention. That’s particularly true when the efficacy of whatever proposed policy is in doubt. If you don’t know for sure that it will work, maybe don’t do it. There are often grave risks associated with plunging forward recklessly. [...]

The Nothing of US Trade

By |2018-11-02T17:51:05+00:00November 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US imports rose sharply (seasonally-adjusted) in September 2018 over August. Both with and without petroleum, the year-over-year gains (unadjusted) were about 9%. September, however, will be the last month of favorable comparisons. Over the next few months last year’s artificial hurricane related surge will move into the base for comparisons. Exports were up far more [...]

Continuously Misidentifying Constant ‘Overseas Turmoil’ Leads To Constant Everywhere Turmoil

By |2018-10-31T11:27:54+00:00October 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overseas turmoil continues in October. The Chinese government released its Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) for both manufacturing and services. Each one came in at a multi-month low. The National Bureau of Statistics calculated that the manufacturing version was just 50.2 this month, the lowest level since July 2016. The Non-manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 53.9 [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

How Close Are the Clouds?

By |2018-10-12T11:56:52+00:00October 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

April was only a half a year ago, the optimism of 2017 at that time as yet untroubled by darkening skies. What had happened earlier in the year was nothing, they said, just a little nervousness about things becoming, don’t laugh, too good. Inflation was picking up because the global economy was roaring, which would [...]

China’s Nineties Fears, Not Just Japan

By |2018-10-05T13:01:34+00:00October 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The year 2012 was a turning point, there can be no doubts about that. At least not when objectively and honestly reviewing the data. Up until the worldwide slowdown that hit that year, starting the year before, 2011, in an “unexpected” flareup of global monetary crisis, the Great “Recession” was viewed as harsh, even prolonged. [...]

China’s Industrial Dollar

By |2018-10-01T18:32:06+00:00October 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they [...]