It Was Never About Oil Part 2; It Was Always Leverage and Volatility

By |2016-02-10T18:13:15+00:00February 10th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The entire point of leveraged positions is the margin of safety. That is true on both sides of that equation, as for the provider and the borrower/user. In the most famous examples of collapse, from AIG to LTCM losses were never really the issue. None of them could withstand instead collateral calls to their liquidity [...]

It Was Never About Oil

By |2016-02-09T17:15:51+00:00February 9th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The link between stock prices and oil has been especially high of late, and that has left quite a few traders and experts stumped. For a good long while any impact from oil was denied as only “transitory” or even helpful to consumers through some sort of “tax cut” effect. In January 2016, however, liquidations [...]

Free The Monetary System, Free The Recovery

By |2015-05-15T11:04:49+00:00May 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite the fact that the FDIC is largely charged with regulating small, community banks, it’s mixed-in deposit guarantee “insurance” brings the agency into contact with all manner of banks. This includes, of course, the largest firms that dominate in financial areas that have very little to do with banking in its most monetary form. The [...]

Coincident Timing For Terms of Next Housing ‘Boost’

By |2014-10-17T15:11:06+00:00October 17th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The long-awaited “clarification” in GSE housing expansion is about due, and coincidentally it will be released at the same time other central agents are getting their work done.  So as the global economy falls into at least a changed mood out of complacency and disinterest, suddenly the ECB has its covered bond “purchase” finalized (as [...]

New Home Sales Much Better Monthly; Context Still Ugly

By |2014-06-27T10:45:33+00:00June 27th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

Now that home sales have bounced off the winter lows, we can analyze the real estate market outside of the excuses and distractions. There is no question that May’s sales rate was far better than January or February, but once again that is an amazingly low standard of comparison. In fact, May 2014’s SAAR is [...]

Friday FOMC Memories: Bent Straight Lines

By |2014-04-11T16:53:38+00:00April 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose when your entire task derives from regression-based statistics, there is the tendency to incorporate straight lines into even your own thought patterns. Of course, that leads to self-reinforcing bias and should be canceled by some governing process. Usually that governing process takes the form of applied knowledge (as opposed to math-based knowledge) and [...]

The ECB Boiler Room

By |2014-04-09T16:42:40+00:00April 9th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

To say that Greece is an economic and fiscal mess is to be repetitive. While the imprint of victimization stains much of the economic collapse, it is at least somewhat strongly applicable in the reminder that financialism is a huge strain in the long run. As with nearly everything European since last summer, the whispers [...]

Financial Gravity

By |2014-03-25T15:17:51+00:00March 25th, 2014|Currencies, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The appearance and intensity of uncertainty is in direct proportion to the counter efforts intended to sow content and maintain the idea of control. It amounts to the financial equivalent of a “show of force.” Yet, how often do such forceful demonstrations actually provide comfort? More often than not, participants in that uncertainty interpret the [...]