fomc

Incredibly Simple economics

By |2018-09-28T16:49:40+00:00September 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are more than 300 PhD Economists working on staff for the Federal Reserve. The central bank tells us that they “represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise.” Perhaps, but they are all PhD Economists, aren’t they? These highly educated people cover a broad range of topics, for sure, and [...]

Chicken Hawks

By |2018-09-26T18:23:47+00:00September 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There had been whispers that the FOMC would have to undertake a second “technical adjustment” this year. Is it coincidence that the eurodollar futures curve inverted on the same day, June 13, Jay Powell announced the first one? Perhaps, but given what we are talking about here there is a fair chance they are related, [...]

The Price of Mispricing

By |2018-08-22T17:14:50+00:00August 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC statement for the July-August 2018 policy meeting exceeded expectations once more. It’s difficult for the Committee to continually do this since the whole point of these things is to downplay all expectations. The goal is to make everything seem boring and uninteresting, if the Federal Reserve is doing its job. But they are [...]

Why Hysteria Died, In One Day

By |2018-08-01T16:02:53+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why did inflation hysteria die? The answer is surprisingly simple. Proponents way oversold the thing. They kept claiming that the labor market, via a truly booming economy, would force the Fed’s hand. Wage growth was about to explode, therefore monetary policy couldn’t afford to be complacent. Aggressiveness was about to become Jay Powell’s go-to position. [...]