China’s Economy Is Not Crashing, It’s Worse Than That

By |2018-10-19T11:50:19+00:00October 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s economy is not crashing. Hyperbole works both ways. Last year and this, the smallest increment above a prior number was broadcast out as the greatest thing ever (US wage growth in particular), irrefutable proof of globally synchronized growth. Now that that’s over with, largely, there will be a tendency toward the other extreme. The [...]

Exhibit A For No Growth

By |2018-09-27T16:53:16+00:00September 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q2 GDP to a 4.07464% continuously compounded annual rate from 4.13987%. More importantly, the BEA provided revised benchmark estimates for corporate profits. The good news is that the benchmark was higher. The bad news is that companies still aren’t making any money. All the revisions applied to long [...]

The First Global Domino Tips

By |2018-08-31T12:38:35+00:00August 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s hard to believe it was only about three months ago. Time flies when disaster unfolds all around you. In early June, Brazil’s central bank arranged a press conference where its President Ilan Goldfajn would set everyone straight. The currency was falling, he admitted, but it would be easily handled by closely following the Portuguese [...]

‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

By |2018-08-30T16:27:35+00:00August 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. [...]

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much

By |2018-08-29T17:23:13+00:00August 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky high. The business association’s index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn’t seen since the apex of the dot-com days. Though I’m not sure that’s really a positive reflection on the economy, the mainstream verdict is as usual quite different. U.S. consumer confidence surged [...]

Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

By |2018-08-23T16:38:48+00:00August 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. That’s been the basis of [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]