germany

The End of QE Will Always Devolve Into This Sort of Incoherent Mess

By |2018-12-13T17:18:48+00:00December 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

That was a circus. These things are typically ungraceful to begin with, but this one was in a class by itself. Mario Draghi, the leader of the rudderless ECB, was in top form today. For pure entertainment value, he couldn’t have done better. People think that’s not the job of a top central banker but [...]

Curious Rush To Combine German Banks

By |2018-12-12T18:21:31+00:00December 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Markets today celebrated more bad news out of Germany. Misunderstanding especially in stocks is par for the course, not that it’s much better outside of them. German officials are laying the groundwork to change the nation’s banking laws so that it’s two largest banks, really “banks”, can more easily combine. If it should ever come [...]

‘Paris’ Technocrats Face Another Drop

By |2018-12-11T12:49:37+00:00December 11th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts. Italy has found competition in the race [...]

The Obvious Politics of Downturn(s)

By |2018-11-14T17:35:14+00:00November 14th, 2018|Markets|

There was more than enough evidence that QE didn’t work fifteen years ago. The Japanese had accumulated these monetary experiments at the dawn of the 21st century. And there was even a time when US and Western central bankers were skeptical. What happened was 2008; a dislocation so big and widespread they had no choice [...]

Fake Boom No Match For the Calendar

By |2018-10-25T17:23:25+00:00October 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms and then frontrunning potential trade restrictions. Manufacturers domestically were gearing up for a whole host of non-economic reasons. If Keynes had ever been right about activity [...]

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23+00:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And [...]

The Conspicuous Consistency of Curves

By |2018-08-20T17:03:19+00:00August 20th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not that curves are flattening. It’s where they are. There’s really no mystery surrounding any of this. The “conundrum” arrives only when starting from the orthodox perspective; the one derived from Economists even though they don’t understand the bond market in the slightest. Short-term rates tend to “obey” central bank signals because central banks [...]

Just Who, Exactly, Is So Optimistic?

By |2018-07-26T18:41:45+00:00July 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

BNP Paribas is apparently calling for an epic rout in German bunds. According to Bloomberg (who else?) it’s a mini-revival of Bill Gross’ ill-fated tweet advertising the “short of a lifetime.” In April 2015, the man many called the bond king said it was going to be better than the pound in 1993. https://twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624 Gross [...]