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Do I Owe Christine Lagarde An Apology?

By |2022-04-29T17:59:22-04:00April 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I may have to rethink my opinion of Christine Lagarde. It just may be that after helming one serious debacle after another, she – unlike most in her position – may have learned a thing or two about being too quick to call it a day. Premature celebrations were the hallmark of central banks throughout the last fifteen years, including, [...]

Produzentenfenster Globale Rezessionsuhr

By |2022-04-12T20:08:31-04:00April 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

German optimism was predictably, inevitably sent crashing in March and April 2022. According to that country’s ZEW survey, an uptick in general optimism from November 2021 to February 2022 collided with the reality of Russian armored vehicles trying to snake their way down to Kiev. Whereas sentiment had rebounded from an October low of 22.3, blamed on whichever of the [...]

Speaking Volumes Rather Than Fast Rate Hikes

By |2022-04-08T17:39:41-04:00April 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The price illusion. It is causing enormous confusion and difficulty, making the global economy out to be something it really isn’t. In fact, the whole situation is being viewed backward. What’s presumed from this is a red-hot economy causing consumer prices to skyrocket. In such a scenario, central banks might need to rush their rate hikes to cool it down [...]

Treasuries, Sure, What About Other Government Bond Curves?

By |2022-04-05T19:53:14-04:00April 5th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Treasury curve, as you might have heard, is inverted. After today’s repeat sell-off, it’s a little less inverted than it had been recently (un-inverted in the 2s10s, which isn’t unusual) given how yields closed at the longer end up more than those up front and middle. The zig-zag back and forth of ultra-short run market fluctuations continues.But what [...]

Hard Data And Hard Truths Outside the Laundromat

By |2022-03-25T20:32:59-04:00March 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Was this taking it a little too far, a little too obvious? Central bankers, since they aren’t real central bankers, their entire job is to project confidence. We get that. No matter what happens along the way, you can be sure policymakers aren’t going to ever let on in public they’re concerned. Think the famous scene in the Naked Gun [...]

Another Unnecessary Trip To The Laundry

By |2022-03-25T18:06:28-04:00March 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was likely inevitable, broad economic commentary sifting into the laundry yet again. With alarming regularity, every couple of years the idea and the term “decoupling” rears its filthy head as major global economies seem to diverge. They don’t, though, merely an illusion, a trick due mostly to differences in timing.It was Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO all the way back [...]

Europe’s Inflation Situation, Where Germany’s 10s Are and Why

By |2022-02-03T20:28:56-05:00February 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All eyes on Europe today where ECB Governor Christine Lagarde tried very hard to avoid committing to either rate hikes or the timing of them. Always conditional, she says. However, everyone knows different. With her counterparts at the Federal Reserve already committed to panicking over CPI rates, the latest HICP inflation numbers in Europe are not going to take any [...]

As The Fed Seeks To Justify Raising Rates, Global Growth Rates Have Been Falling Off Uniformly Around The World

By |2022-01-05T20:00:52-05:00January 5th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment indicators like PMI’s are nice and all, but they’re hardly top-tier data. It’s certainly not their fault, these things are made for very times than these (piggy-backing on the ISM Manufacturing’s long history without having the long history). Most of them have come out since 2008, if only because of the heightened professional interest in macroeconomics generated by a [...]

Inflationary Overheating, Tapering and Terminating QE, We’ve Seen These Before And It Didn’t End The Way It Was Supposed To

By |2021-12-30T12:23:09-05:00December 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy was in danger of running hot, too hot they all said. In order to stay ahead of such inflation potential, as central bankers saw it, first it would be necessary to wind down quantitative easing. Taper then terminate. After that, rate hikes.Hawks buzzing around everywhere.But Mario Draghi’s ECB had a problem. The inflationary pressures were there, he reasoned, [...]

Global Trade Case(s) Behind Global ‘Growth Scare’

By |2021-12-07T18:41:14-05:00December 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Census Bureau today reported that US imports of goods and services reached a record monthly high of $290.7 billion in October 2021. Just goods alone, the figure was $241.1 billion, which was 11% greater than the previous peak set way back in October 2018. With (questionable) media accounts continuing to highlight West Coast port traffic, there may not [...]

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