globally synchronized growth

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23+00:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And [...]

Japan’s Not Really A Domino, Though The Timing Is Right

By |2018-09-07T17:41:19+00:00September 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This year is just different. Increasingly so. Not just in one or two places, either, but in way too many places. In Japan, for instance, real Household Spending rose by the smallest amount in July, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Japan. In 2017, this would have been a worrisome sign. In 2018, it [...]

More Dominos

By |2018-09-05T12:54:45+00:00September 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You get the impression often that these guys have no idea what drives the dollar. They cling to all sorts of theories, of course, from interest rate differentials to perceptions of economic strength. That seemed to be the case in 2017 and its “weak dollar” environment. Globally synchronized growth would mean potency pretty much everywhere, [...]

Ugly China’s American Mirror

By |2018-08-14T11:46:26+00:00August 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday, we spotlighted Brazil’s economy as perhaps a leading indicator for where things stand. Today, it’s China’s turn. Neither are very encouraging. Both offer instead only growing concern. The reason isn’t just the possibility of the world economy rolling over in 2018, rather it’s from what level any deceleration might have begun. Despite the characterization [...]

What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

By |2018-08-08T12:35:57+00:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation [...]

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