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globally synchronized growth

Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

By |2019-10-03T19:01:36-04:00October 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. Both of those followed closely [...]

Globally Synchronized (Bond Yields)

By |2019-06-21T16:22:29-04:00June 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you have nothing left, it can sound like a winning argument but you have to really try hard enough. In October 2015, with another false dawn dawning on the public, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote and op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal. As had become his habit, it was full of praise – for his own [...]

Globally Synchronized…

By |2019-04-25T18:43:22-04:00April 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death. What that meant in the context of globally synchronized growth, 2017’s repeatedly dominant narrative, wasn’t the end [...]

IMF Cancels Globally Synchronized Growth, Confirms The Worst Case

By |2019-04-09T13:04:30-04:00April 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The IMF becomes the latest mainstream organization to abandon the recovery. It wasn’t really much of one to begin with, mostly just the hope that an uptick in growth would lead to the long sought, and necessary, completion. Globally synchronized growth in 2017 was supposed to mean a plausible pathway toward it. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) said in [...]

Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

By |2019-04-01T12:22:47-04:00April 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks. There had been noises overseas, troubling [...]

Broken Record

By |2019-03-06T15:59:22-05:00March 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The OECD has become the latest mainstream Economist outfit to relent on growth. Two years ago, they had grown cautiously optimistic as reflation appeared in the back half of 2016. By the middle of 2017, positively giddy barely able to contain their increasingly rabid excitement: The global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn [...]

Canada Trade, Plain and Simple

By |2018-10-23T12:25:36-04:00October 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at its last meeting in early September. Like the Federal Reserve, Canada’s central bank has been “tightening.” The policy lever had been lifted four times starting in July 2017. It is expected that when monetary officials meet in Ottawa tomorrow they will vote for a fifth. In recent weeks, though, [...]

Dollar Daze

By |2018-10-18T15:38:19-04:00October 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It used to be that if the US sneezed, the whole world would catch cold. Placed in terms of how the global economy worked, the point was easily made that US demand pretty much directed how it would fare for everyone else. Without US economic growth, the world would surely stumble as it had throughout modern history. Apparently, this is [...]

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23-04:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And it may not matter much [...]

Tighten Those Hatches Further

By |2018-10-02T17:06:09-04:00October 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eventually, it comes for everyone. They say that the only sure things in life are death and taxes. While true, over the last eleven years we’ve come to depend on another “d”, dollar. Sure, the US economy can decouple, but only for a while. To this point, the eurodollar is undefeated. There seems to be a lot of surprise about [...]

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