A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31+00:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. [...]

One Fragile Year In Review: It Was A Warning

By |2018-09-05T17:46:54+00:00September 5th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago today, something broke. It wasn't a big thing, practically a footnote seemingly not worth mainstream attention. Out of nowhere, the 4-week T-bill yield spiked. On Friday, September 1, 2017, the equivalent interest rate for the instrument was steady at 96 bps. That was already a problem because the Federal Reserve’s RRP was [...]

Eurodollar University: Dark Money

By |2018-08-24T16:28:31+00:00August 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Deutsche Bank wasn’t the only global institution under the gun of the US Justice Department. While the German bank settled for a record fine earlier this year, RBS was also hit. Theirs was an eye popping $4.9 billion settlement. The ostensibly British bank had already set aside $3.4 billion for the anticipated civil penalty, meaning [...]

Spreading Spreads (and JPY)

By |2018-08-20T18:56:40+00:00August 20th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is it that’s different in August? If there was some relative calm in global markets in June and July it certainly disappeared this month. The dollar shot higher and global liquidity indications began sinking again. Yields have fallen on safety (liquidity) instruments more apparently divorced from any other mainstream factors. One place to look [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Collateral Silos And The Deflationary Gold Rush

By |2018-08-15T11:31:01+00:00August 15th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was never really all that much. The best that might have been said was that it was a pause in the building of renewed deflationary pressures. The dollar had “risen” again especially in April and May, but then traded sideways through July. It wasn’t a rebound or even much that was positive, just less [...]

Unwelcome August

By |2018-08-13T16:58:51+00:00August 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even [...]

Deflationary Decade(s)

By |2018-08-06T16:44:09+00:00August 6th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve seen a lot of commentary lately describe conditions as if things are calmed down. There was a bit of growth scare, a little T-bill indigestion earlier in the year. The Chinese are somehow both stimulating their export sector by devaluing CNY, and also controlling the price of gold while they do it. The contradictory [...]