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JOLTS Three (Data) Body Problem

By |2022-03-29T20:00:23-04:00March 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though labor data, like the market it measures, is a lagging macro indicator, there’s some use in closely tracking any changes to it. Financial markets may send out profound warning signals, as they are now, about the future which aren’t (yet) showing up in the employment statistics, still those estimates might provide at least some background behind in this case [...]

Pay Attention

By |2022-03-11T17:32:47-05:00March 11th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Benchmark revisions have visited the BLS JOLTS survey, too. And yes, they’ve been smoothed. To that end, the hawkishly-watched Job Openings (JO) trend has been altered. Before this week’s release, JO had peaked like the Establishment Survey back last summer and had seemed to soften since. Now, JO continues on an upward bend rather than downward.For JOLTS Hires (HI), the [...]

How Many More Americans Might Have Quit Their Jobs Than The Huge Number Already Estimated, And What Might This Mean For FOMC Taper

By |2022-01-04T19:44:11-05:00January 4th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were a few surprises included in the BLS JOLTS data just released today for the month of November (note: the government has changed its release schedule so that JOLTS, already one month further in arrears than the payroll report, CES & CPS, will now come out earlier so that its numbers are publicly available for the same monthly payrolls [...]

A Global JOLT(s) In July

By |2021-12-08T17:43:58-05:00December 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million. It wasn’t a record high, though, as that was set [...]

Inflation Just Doesn’t Pass Math

By |2021-11-12T16:59:47-05:00November 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time since last December, the level of Job Openings (JO) pictured by the BLS’s JOLTS survey declined. End of the line for the economy?I am intentionally overselling this monthly minus. While the latest figure for September 2021 was indeed less than the one for August, if only because August’s estimate was raised by several hundred thousand. Going [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

By |2021-11-01T08:01:59-04:00October 31st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]

Taper Math, Lazy Labor Slander

By |2021-10-12T17:59:30-04:00October 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The number of Job Openings for the month of July were revised upward, the BLS now thinking there had been more than 11 million of them during that month. Companies seem to be desperate for workers, at least judging by this one measure. The latest estimate for August 2021 came in well short of either the revised figure (11.1 million) [...]

Turning The LABOR SHORTAGE Up to 11

By |2021-09-08T17:53:40-04:00September 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In Massachusetts, the Federal Reserve’s First District, restaurateurs have struggled mightily to find workers. As part of the central bank’s Beige Book, one contact of the Boston leadership said the industry was “facing the worst labor shortage he has seen in 35 years of experience.” In response to such a major threat, these firms become truly creative to try to [...]

April’s Payroll Jolt, Because Unprecedented Number of Workers Just Quit?

By |2021-06-08T17:51:28-04:00June 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

April 2021’s payroll estimate (CES) was the “bad” one; at a revised +278,000 it was “supposed” to have been significantly better than the “good” one for March (+785,000, revised). Near three hundred thousand in any month before 2020 would’ve been celebrated as a near miracle (that’s just how bad the labor market has been for a long time). What made [...]

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