hourly compensation

The Unemployment Rate Could Be Zero…

By |2018-02-01T18:39:51+00:00February 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One more point on the hourly compensation estimates as they relate to this supposed labor shortage. As I wrote in examining the Beveridge Curve from a different, and ultimately more consistent, perspective: It just doesn’t work that way. In a real labor shortage, wage gains wouldn’t be modest because they couldn’t be modest. If they [...]

Waiting For Godot’s Wages

By |2017-12-06T15:36:07+00:00December 6th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though the BEA revised GDP slightly higher for Q3 2017, the government agency took hourly compensation out to the woodshed. On a quarterly basis, this metric of labor market wage pressures is often quite volatile. In Q4 last year, for instance, nominal hourly compensation was -4.5% Q/Q (annual rate), followed immediately by a 4.9% gain [...]

Enough With The Labor Shortage Already, It Doesn’t/Can’t Exist

By |2017-09-07T18:39:00+00:00September 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Can we finally put to rest all notions that the US economy is at full employment and doing well, and therefore wage inflation is right around the corner? I suspect not. This dance has been ongoing for years now, continuing through what was nearly a recession, so there is little reason to believe that economists [...]

Drastic Implications of Persistent Slack Indications

By |2016-12-06T16:21:06+00:00December 6th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the BLS’s latest figures, real hourly compensation increased 2.2% Q/Q (annualized rate) in Q3. Wages and earnings are being closely watched, of course, for signs of acceleration due to the so far ethereal full employment level. That idea is taken from the unemployment rate even though, as in November, it has been as [...]

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