In A Booming Economy, You Buy And Build Houses

By |2018-11-23T14:31:26+00:00November 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We can add realtors to the list of those who are angry with Jay Powell. The housing market continued its perplexing slump in October, according to a broad section of data encompassing everything from construction to sales of existing homes. We have been told since Economics 101 that the central bank is, well, central, therefore [...]

What’s Really Behind the Gathering Slump

By |2018-10-24T11:56:50+00:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The housing slump accelerated in September. Matching the poor performance of resales, sales of newly constructed houses tumbled last month, too. According to the Census Bureau, there were 41k (unadjusted) single-family units sold. That’s down an alarming 18% from the same month last year. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 553k in September, the construction [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

Housing History And Why The Yield Curve Got So Flat

By |2018-09-26T11:44:35+00:00September 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The global economy was in very rough shape in 1980. Caught in the spiral of the Great Inflation, there was practically nowhere to hide from ripping upheaval – beyond just the economic problems. Despite trying seemingly everything for an entire decade, nothing Economists came up with would rebalance the system. They kept saying they only [...]

Housing Slump Continues

By |2018-09-20T18:00:36+00:00September 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) today picks right up where we left off yesterday. The Census Bureau had reported another month suggesting a rough spot in real estate. More recent housing data isn’t encouraging, either. The lower the unemployment rate goes, the main emphasis of this “boom”, the worse the housing market becomes; not [...]

Falling Starts

By |2018-07-18T15:32:04+00:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction estimates are notoriously variable. They can change oftentimes by a substantial amount on a month-by-month basis, and the numbers are just as frequently subject to serious revisions in the short run. Still, we have to note when there are big moves even in these high frequency series, though keeping in mind no definitive [...]

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