COT Blue: A Decade of Weird

By |2018-03-16T16:17:47+00:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On July 15, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat in front of Congress for the second of his required Humphrey-Hawkins reports for that year. The original act meant for these to be more than bland economic obfuscation, where the original Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 demanded monetary targets. The Fed stopped [...]

Small Tremors

By |2018-02-06T12:22:41+00:00February 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The current state of geological science cannot predict an earthquake. There is hope, however, that warnings might be realistically developed so that populations in danger of the “big one” can be given some sort of reasonable information about probabilities. In studying the past few devastating quakes, such as the 2011 9.0 that hit Japan twice [...]

Evolving Characteristics Don’t Seem To Alter The Ritual of Summer

By |2016-07-27T14:16:11+00:00July 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 6, 2008, oil prices (WTI) dropped to $87.16, the lowest price since the prior October. Oil had been rising as the market misunderstood and dramatically mispriced what was going on; buying on the idea of monetary policy accommodation in growing intensity, while at the same time not factoring the hidden monetary destruction that [...]

Money Market Illiquidity Further Removes A Central Myth

By |2016-06-27T18:02:52+00:00June 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It might be expected that monetary policy would fail to achieve its goal in attempting to manage the economy when it cannot even meet its own basic technical requirements. The main lever of Fed policy continues to be the federal funds rate even though it is entirely irrelevant, and has been for a long time. [...]

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