In A Booming Economy, You Buy And Build Houses

By |2018-11-23T14:31:26+00:00November 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We can add realtors to the list of those who are angry with Jay Powell. The housing market continued its perplexing slump in October, according to a broad section of data encompassing everything from construction to sales of existing homes. We have been told since Economics 101 that the central bank is, well, central, therefore [...]

Frozen In Time, The Wrong S-Curve

By |2018-11-05T17:26:29+00:00November 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As usual, Paul Krugman starts out with a serious attempt at answers before detouring into his current profession. Dr. Krugman used to be an Economist, and a pretty good one too (for whatever that’s worth). Nowadays, he employs his New York Times column as a mouthpiece for really blatant politicking. It isn’t even so much [...]

Tropical Labor Math

By |2018-10-05T12:00:35+00:00October 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was coming, it wasn’t coming. On again, off again. Voluntary evacuations, all clears, and then the rushed mandatory removals. When Hurricane Bonnie finally made landfall, it left people more angry than usual with these kinds of storms. Weather officials just didn’t know where it would end up. In eventually would smack right into Virginia’s [...]

Incredibly Simple economics

By |2018-09-28T16:49:40+00:00September 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are more than 300 PhD Economists working on staff for the Federal Reserve. The central bank tells us that they “represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise.” Perhaps, but they are all PhD Economists, aren’t they? These highly educated people cover a broad range of topics, for sure, and [...]

The Wage Test

By |2018-08-17T15:32:34+00:00August 17th, 2018|Markets|

In August 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen described the wage dilemma in some detail. She was still relatively new to the job at that time, and there was pressure on her from among the so-called hawks to more aggressively normalize monetary policy. Ben Bernanke had taken the more cautious approach having experienced what both [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Consumer Credit, Taxes, And Revisions

By |2018-08-07T16:40:17+00:00August 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Americans are eschewing credit cards in 2018. Outside of a big jump in revolving credit balances in May, through June 2018 the Federal Reserve reports only small gains in the total aggregate balance. Given, however, the propensity of this data to be significantly revised, we can’t really be sure as to what’s happened. With the [...]

Housing Errors

By |2018-07-23T11:51:14+00:00July 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One way to read the inversion in eurodollar futures is that the market expects the Federal Reserve to ignore growing economic and financial concerns. There is a very reasonable basis for this structure given recent history. Central bankers and Economists have shown a remarkable, and remarkably consistent, ability to talk themselves out of any negative [...]