inflation breakevens

Reframing Doves And Hawks

By |2018-05-25T12:23:02+00:00May 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the minutes of the March 2018 FOMC meeting were released on April 11, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a non-voting alternate member, immediately objected to one statement contained with them. According to Bullard’s version, the notation that “all participants” agreed further rate hikes were necessary was incorrect. He was and remains opposed to [...]

No, No, This 2% Is Different From All Those Others

By |2018-01-10T17:32:20+00:00January 10th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIPS market corollary to interest rate case impatience is overhyping any round number that might in isolation appear to confirm the bias. To reiterate the mistaken assumption: if you believe that economic growth just happens, then given how much time has passed since that was true or apparent you have to believe each long [...]

Admitting Wrong May Be Better But It Still Doesn’t Equate To Suddenly Being Effective

By |2016-10-25T16:57:42+00:00October 25th, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early July, the Bank of Japan may or may not have contemplated the mother of all “stimulus.” Rumors began to fly that the Japanese central bank was, in fact, seriously considering an actual monetary helicopter as a way to boost flagging confidence rightly suspicious of any more QQE (or NIRP). We won’t know for [...]

The BLS Intoxication Of Unreasonable Inflation Devotion

By |2016-10-17T18:05:40+00:00October 17th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Woe to the unemployment rate. Without it so much confusion and angst might have been avoided, though admittedly that more realistic view would have been itself darker but at least clear. In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer unleashed a brief but powerful storm of realism upon the bubble of monetary policy. Perhaps [...]

Turning Again To Inflation Expectations

By |2016-10-14T16:49:43+00:00October 14th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I generally shy away from sentiment surveys as almost a rule because I believe they are more often than not misleading. The various indices of consumer confidence fall into that categorization, especially over the past few years. According to many, consumer confidence is back to where it was during the housing bubble even though by [...]

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