inflation

The Risks of Expectations

By |2018-10-15T16:18:29+00:00October 15th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What do consumers know that Economists don’t? It’s a loaded question, of course, particularly in this day and age where Economists spend years perfecting the study of mathematics. In many ways, formal training is an impediment to analysis of the economy. There’s nothing wrong with learning about regressions, but it can and often does appear [...]

Incredibly Simple economics

By |2018-09-28T16:49:40+00:00September 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are more than 300 PhD Economists working on staff for the Federal Reserve. The central bank tells us that they “represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise.” Perhaps, but they are all PhD Economists, aren’t they? These highly educated people cover a broad range of topics, for sure, and [...]

ECB (Data) Independence

By |2018-09-13T19:01:19+00:00September 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent - at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their [...]

Prefiguring The Expected Expectations Fail

By |2018-09-10T18:24:12+00:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Boston Fed held its 62nd Annual Economic Conference over the weekend. Not quite as well-known as the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, this Eastern branch’s meeting still attracts many big-name speakers. The “right” speakers, that is, meaning academic and mainstream bank Economists, supranational think tank thinkers, as well as current and former central bankers. [...]

ECB At A (Familiar) Crossroads

By |2018-08-31T17:05:54+00:00August 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to [...]