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Weekly Market Pulse: Rational Exuberance?

By |2024-03-25T05:41:54-04:00March 24th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Special Note: I'm in Miami this week, a mix of business and personal. I lived here for 30 years and we raised our family here but we moved to South Carolina a little over 3 years ago because we were tired of the traffic and, more than that, the irritability that comes with so many people crammed into such a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dare To Be Different

By |2024-03-11T08:01:35-04:00March 10th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it still caters to [...]

Market Morsel: Expectations Are Not Predictions

By |2024-03-09T09:16:12-05:00March 8th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

Longer term, I think there are more significant reasons to expect a weaker dollar, starting with our politicians’ (of both parties) newfound infatuation with industrial policy. Government-directed investment may create activity but long-lasting benefits have, in the past, proved quite elusive. The real problem with our government deficits and debt isn’t the debt itself but rather what the borrowed money [...]

Market Pulse: Skeptically Optimistic

By |2024-02-05T08:23:37-05:00February 5th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to Thursday, the yield fell, from high to low, by 34 basis points, a move that added 1.3% to bond prices (Aggregate bond index) in four days. In a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Market Pulse: Presidential Portfolios

By |2024-01-16T08:57:36-05:00January 15th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to us is the least offensive. It isn't very democratic with just two options but that is the system that the politicians built to benefit...themselves and it's all [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The S&P 500 Still Uninvestable?

By |2023-12-03T20:16:58-05:00December 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate|

Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Some Things To Be Thankful For

By |2023-11-26T21:56:26-05:00November 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]

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