jerome powell

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

By |2018-11-29T21:46:14-04:00November 29th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Is the Fed's monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still "a long way from neutral" and that the Fed may ultimately need [...]

The Populist Pathology

By |2018-10-09T18:21:09-04:00October 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The populist pathology is incredibly simple; no one ever takes the blame. Things continually go off-track and officials merely shrug their shoulders and point their fingers. The very idea of accountability is anachronistic. Now that dark clouds are gathering, in the IMF’s words, the fingers are out again. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he [...]

Fundamental, Not Technical

By |2018-08-27T12:07:50-04:00August 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 13, the day the eurodollar futures curve inverted, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was at his regularly scheduled press conference following the regularly scheduled FOMC meeting. Nobody asked him about eurodollar futures, of course, because why bring that up? The press did inquire about IOER, though. The Fed had decided to make a [...]

Eurodollar University: Dark Money

By |2018-08-24T16:28:31-04:00August 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Deutsche Bank wasn’t the only global institution under the gun of the US Justice Department. While the German bank settled for a record fine earlier this year, RBS was also hit. Theirs was an eye popping $4.9 billion settlement. The ostensibly British bank had already set aside $3.4 billion for the anticipated civil penalty, meaning [...]

When Sentiment Shifts

By |2018-07-10T16:36:44-04:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like all sentiment surveys, Germany’s ZEW is susceptible to overzealousness on the part of the survey participants. The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung is a think tank located in Manheim that has since 1991 carried out this broad questionnaire. Up to 350 analysts are included in the panel, each working at a bank, insurance carrier, or [...]

Already Back In The Red?

By |2018-06-28T17:35:33-04:00June 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In July 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testified before Congress. It was the usual Humphrey-Hawkins stuff, except in this instance at that particular time there was every reason to suspect things were finally changing. The unemployment rate, in particular, was sinking like a stone dropped in a pond. Some additional economic indicators signaled perhaps [...]

Dovish = Uncertain, Therefore Dollar

By |2018-06-15T17:17:56-04:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back a few months ago when Europe was booming, or at least everyone was sure that this one particular economy was, market futures prices indicated an expectation for the first European rate hike to take place by Q2 2019. That was consistent with the US Federal Reserve’s experience as well as how the mainstream narrative [...]