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labor force

The Great Eurodollar Famine: The Pendulum of Money Creation Combined With Intermediation

By |2021-10-11T19:37:50-04:00October 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was one of those signals which mattered more than the seemingly trivial details surrounding the affair. The name MF Global doesn’t mean very much these days, but for a time in late 2011 it came to represent outright fear. Some were even declaring it the next “Lehman.” While the “bank” did eventually fail, and the implications of it came [...]

For The Love Of Unemployment Rates

By |2021-10-08T18:19:36-04:00October 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here we are again. The labor force. The numbers from the BLS are simply staggering. During September 2021, the government believes it shrank for another month, down by 183,000 when compared to August. This means that the Labor Force Participation rate declined slightly to 61.6%, practically the same level in this key metric going back to June.Last June.These millions, yes, [...]

Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin

By |2021-09-03T18:02:37-04:00September 3rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of [...]

An Eye On GDI May Tell Us Why

By |2021-08-26T19:46:12-04:00August 26th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The second estimate for second quarter 2021 GDP didn’t change much, or anything. However, coincident with this “expenditure side” data release the BEA also completed its full preliminary assessments of the “income side.” GDI, in other words.What’s interesting on this other side of the output ledger is something called Net Operating Surplus (NOS). And it is NOS which frustratingly takes [...]

One For Waller’s Taper Table

By |2021-08-06T18:08:13-04:00August 6th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Score one big one for Governor Waller’s taper checklist. This particular FOMC member had, just a few days ago, speculated on continued large gains in US payrolls. A couple more on top of the last one, that being June, and it was his position the Federal Reserve would have to begin to seriously consider shifting course. He doesn’t mean to [...]

No Inflation In These Payrolls

By |2021-07-02T17:18:26-04:00July 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good [...]

UST Yields, Reverse Repo, and…Payrolls

By |2021-06-04T18:15:32-04:00June 4th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February’s cold winter blast throughout the Southern United States was supposed to have been the extent of the weakness. The unusual and unusually severe freeze caused a great deal of havoc, making its way very quickly into economic data. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.) so it seemed the easiest correlation [...]

Not Really A Massive Payroll Miss, Just Reopening

By |2021-05-07T16:25:05-04:00May 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Huge miss. Whopping dud. Maybe it wasn’t nearly that bad?The consensus forecast had called for payroll growth in April 2021 of something like +980,000, in line with the previous blowout estimate for March. In the updated batch, first that prior one was revised downward to just +770,000 and then the latest guess put the current month at a seemingly awful [...]

Reopening 2

By |2021-04-05T17:36:05-04:00April 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private [...]

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