labor market

Payrolls Too; Inflation Hysteria Gives Way to Inversion Unease

By |2018-12-07T12:08:45+00:00December 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unfortunately for Jay Powell, labor statistics are at best backward looking and often just plain misleading. Can you imagine if the wage data contained with November 2018’s payroll report had been released last December instead? Today, pretty much nobody cares anymore. We’ve flipped from inflation hysteria to inversion unease and that was always the appropriate [...]

Unexpected?

By |2018-12-05T11:50:26+00:00December 5th, 2018|Markets|

Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so “unexpected”, you see. Nobody could have seen it coming, therefore it [...]

BoJ On 2.3%: ‘the decline in the unemployment rate is insufficient’

By |2018-11-06T16:06:39+00:00November 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The 21st century central banker is a unicorn chaser. This has happened by default, a product of too little success despite ever-increasing interventions. In fact, the bigger these policy intrusions become the more likely it is the central bankers will attempt to turn something small into something big. It doesn’t matter that economies are noisy [...]

Living With Nothing; Or, ‘If You Don’t Like This One Nothing Is Going To Make You Happy’

By |2018-11-02T12:25:28+00:00November 2nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 5, 2014, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in the month of November 2014 nonfarm private payrolls had surged by +321k. Typically bureaucratic, the introduction to the report was unusually blunt. “Job gains were widespread.” The text didn’t come right out and say it so the media did it all for [...]

Let’s Just Pretend This Isn’t Happening, Again

By |2018-11-01T16:43:47+00:00November 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why aren’t more people talking about this? It’s a huge development and nary a peep anywhere. The mainstream media is filled with baited expectations for 3% wage growth on Payroll Friday. All eyes are on the labor market, which is a lagging indication, instead of on the oil market, which is forward looking. As of [...]

No Such Thing As An 80% Boom

By |2018-10-24T17:12:53+00:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Many attribute the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats” to President John Kennedy. He may have been the man who brought it into the mainstream but as his former speechwriter Ted Sorenson long ago admitted it didn’t originate from his or the President’s imagination. Instead, according to Sorenson, it was a phrase borrowed from [...]

Bond JOLTS Without Wages To Back Just JO

By |2018-09-11T17:46:59+00:00September 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the absence of a booming economy, one has been conjured from a select few employment statistics. The catalog, beginning in 2014, consisted of a rapidly falling unemployment rate, the Establishment Survey which dazzled with headline payroll growth supposedly adding up to the “best jobs market in decades”, and the JOLTS series but curiously omitting [...]

Unhappy Labor (Day)

By |2018-09-04T13:04:16+00:00September 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In November 1929, faced with the growing prospects for serious economic reverse, President Herbert Hoover gathered the heads of major American industrial businesses to confer at the White House. Primary on his agenda was wages. For workers, depression was simple. Work was hard to find but more than that what labor might be exchanged would [...]