When Sentiment Shifts

By |2018-07-10T16:36:44+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like all sentiment surveys, Germany’s ZEW is susceptible to overzealousness on the part of the survey participants. The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung is a think tank located in Manheim that has since 1991 carried out this broad questionnaire. Up to 350 analysts are included in the panel, each working at a bank, insurance carrier, or [...]

Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way

By |2018-04-18T18:17:59+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve [...]

What’s In A Spread? Euro$ Futures Have Been Anticipating LIBOR-OIS For Seven Months

By |2018-04-02T19:44:42+00:00April 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since LIBOR is a hot topic again, though no 2a7 in sight, I thought I’d add one additional perspective that isn’t found in any other analysis. LIBOR is, of course, a money rate applied not to domestic funding but eurodollars on offer in London. The current criticism of the rate stems from the fact that [...]

All Kinds Of Stock Market Irregularities

By |2016-10-13T18:03:44+00:00October 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A great many asset classes have been moving almost perfectly sideways for months now. That is unusual by any standard, but more so given the circumstances of late 2016. This might be indicative of doubts, some of which are being reinforced by weakness that might be characterized as “unexpected” but really no longer is. Today’s [...]

Waiting For Earnings To Correct? Q1 And Forward EPS Update

By |2016-06-22T12:50:43+00:00June 22nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

EPS estimates are always in the practice of falling over time, so that natural process should be considered when comparing across the movement of the calendar. That said, however, earnings continue to defy projections of a rebound. This is not to say that analysts aren’t expecting one, only that the expectation keeps pushing further out [...]

Illiquidity, Safe Havens, and the Search For The Trigger

By |2016-06-13T19:10:59+00:00June 13th, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If there seems to be more safe haven demand of late, the increasing odds of British exit from the EU is being blamed. According to Yahoo!Finance, Goldman Sachs sees “kinks” in the option structure, an agglomeration of hedging demand that points to maturities around the UK referendum. The absence of any heavy hedging this week [...]

‘Dollar’ Moving Quickly Now

By |2015-07-07T11:34:40+00:00July 7th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is little doubt now that the “dollar” is wreaking havoc upon the global financial complex. Commodities are being battered almost everywhere, and in a manner not seen since the last version of “dollar” trouble prior to the March 18 FOMC “dovishness.” This time, however, there is almost nothing of monetary policy in the moves, [...]